比较公司——中药业务

最近还在吹着美金的强势风，这让家私股从年头牛到今天了，例子有HEVEA，HOMERIZ，POHUAT，LIIHEN，EVERGRN等。然后最近的木板股也不服输，一起跟势上游。

美国在今年的升息计划也被联储局主席耶伦（Janet Yellen）comfirm了，美元升息后短期内应该对大马RM有不大的影响，长期来看感觉1美元换4零吉的日子是迟早的，业务出口去美国的公司应该抓几间在手先了，不然会走宝。

当心里有“钟意“的业务但是不知道应该投资哪间公司因为有时同行的公司有太多间了，这时就应该比较同行的公司，看看哪间公司比较值得买进。不多说了，下面例子是比较同行中药业务的公司：

图表里的计算法都是根据2014年，包括股价和股票数量。股价也根据去年12月31号年尾来定因为所有数据都是从2014年报里取出。另外因为BIOHLDG是在今年才上市所有就用它第一天闭市的价格了。做功课的时候发现以上公司的EPS在去年已经下滑了不少，加上今年刚实行的GST，看来中药业的公司短期内很难因基本面反弹了。。。


本文只供参考。共勉之。

6963 VS

今天是马来新年的第三天，祝马来朋友新年快乐和 Selamat Hari Raya。这几天因为对今年暴增的VS Industry 产生兴趣所以对此做了以下功课。VS是间电子业专制造服务（EMS，Electronic Manufacturing Services），EMS就是一个全线的服务，这包括产品开发、产品生产，这当然包括产品的採购、产品的品质管理及运输物流。另外VS的主要客户是Keurig、Dyson和Zodiac，看来公司的未来发展可以被期待了。以下是VS的功课：

Company Overview

·         VS ranked world's top global Electronic Manufacturing Service (EMS) providers for world-reowned office and household appliance manufacturers since year 2007 till today.

·         Dividend is given in every quarter result.

·         Main business activities comprise investment holding and the manufacturing, assembling and sale of electronic and electrical products and plastic moulded components and parts.

Personal Comment

·         VS's capital able to bonus issue for 2 to every 1 ordinary share.

·         Average free cash flow yield is 4% along latest five years is not satisfied but CY in year 2012 to 2014 is attractive.

·         Year 2014 is the year for VS to surge its revenue and net profit. Q3''2015 has a cumulative revenue and profit with growth rate of 141% and 49% respectively.

·         Profit margin of VS is low. Larger revenue but low net profit. So cost of goods sold is important to identify the earning power of VS.

·         Latest borrowing per share is RM 2.05 while cash per share is RM 0.96 so result net debt per share with RM 1.09. Unhealthy cash company.

·         From NTA view, VS is undervaluing seriously in past record but current price surpass over the current NTA.

·         Trailing PE (Taking EPS for latest 12 months in current price) is 8.79. This matches my criteria to pick stock.

·         DY is attractive in last year. It is higher than fixed deposit rate in bank.

·         Accounting based earning valuation model giving intrinsic value with RM 5.21.

·         Discounted cash flow model give intrinsic value with RM 4.98.

·         Few of useful information disclose by VS in Annual Report.

Additional Information

·         Consolidation of China-based company - V.S. International Group Limited (VSIG) is the main reason of excellent revenue in year 2014.

·         VS expand scope of services in Indonesian operation by adding plastic injection capabilities.

·         Latest treasury shares are 1,149,336.

·         Proposed every 1 shares split to 5 shares with announcement on 14/7/2015 and specific Proposals expected completed by Q3''2015 or made within one month.

 

·         Picture above clearly bring us the image of high increase earning power on U.S, Europe and China but AR2014 don't show the PBT in US and Europe.

·         Even VS get high revenue in every quarter but business activity in Indonesia and China still not stable due to negative PBT sometimes will obtained in quarter result.

·         Non-current asset just present in three countries, there are China (49%), Malaysia (41%) and Indonesia (9%). Left 1% is other category.

·         Revenue based on category of business activities segment is not provided in Annual Report.

·         VS focus their market on Malaysia, Indonesia and China.

·         Operation in Indonesia moved to new factory in May 2015.

·         Top two substantial shareholders who are Executive Chairman and Executive Director are disposing many shares in year 2015.

·         Lot of local and foreign fund listed in top 30 list shareholders.

·         Koon Yew Yin's sharing about VS -  LINK

·         RHB-OSK target price with RM 4.50 at 2/4/2015 - LINK

·         VS expand its business opportunity on coffee industry.

·         Surprising result of PBT in every quarter of year 2015.

·         All the quarter result in year 2015 explained mainly attributable to higher sales and better sales mix contributed by the Malaysian operations.

Questions

1.    Reason of financing cash flow reflect positive since year 2013.

2.    Is it VS proceed large amount of loan aimed to pay off the dividend to its shareholder.

3.    Price of VS after split activity.

4.    Financial ratio that will affected after split activity.

Answers

1.    Year 2013 is mainly due to long term borrowing with amount RM 40 million while 2014 is due to short term borrowing with large amount RM 62 million.

2.    No. Dividend last year accounted to RM 9 million, it just around 2% of total borrowing. So loan is mainly for expansion of business.

3.    Current price will expect become RM 1.05.

4.    EPS, NTA, PE, DY and CY will be affected.


本文只供参考。共勉之。

9571 MITRA

今天大马股市最终成绩是上升了4.99点或者0.29%，同时今天也是四月后外资首次净买的日子。这些资料都来自資匯 The busy weekly。然后这星期四股市休息半天，也就是午市没戏了；同时被称呼黑色的星期五也休息一天。不说股市了，接下来说功课了。这次的功课稍微有点更改，也就是不是根据ANALYSIS来分类功课了，这次换成个人意见和额外资料了。同时在最后加上了Question and Answer (Q&A)。希望这样看起来比较简单也比较容易明白。功课如下：

Company Overview

·         Four main business operated by MITRA, that are Construction, Property Development, Healthcare and Quarry Operations.

·         In Malaysia, the Group is principally involved in the civil engineering, building and road construction works and property development.

·         In South Africa, the Group is principally involved in civil engineering, construction works, property development and golf management. Its revenue seizes 4.3% of total revenue in 2014.

Personal Comment

·         Accounting based earning valuation model giving intrinsic value on MITRA with RM2.29.

·         DCF Model giving intrinsic value with RM2.95.

·         Gross profit margin maintained at good % with 20+.

·         ROE is uptrend from year 2012 to 2014. It achieves 13.61% in 2014.

·         Profit margin is uptrend condition too from year 2012 to 2014. Last profit margin is 10.34%.

·         At current price, PE is 12.68 and need achieve growth rate with 32.7% on EPS to make PE 10.

·         Latest borrowing of Q1''2015 is RM 0.35 per share while cash per share is RM 0.02. So result net debt of RM 0.33 per share. Net debt may show company unhealthy in cash.

·         Average free cash flow yield, CY is 4%; it just hit my minimum criteria on CY.

·         DY may higher than the yield by putting fixed deposit in bank. It hit 5% last year.

·         MITRA target its revenue RM 1 billion in year 2015. This is 100% of growth rate in revenue (Not fully trust on it)

·         Rocket trend in trade receivable by RM 60 million or 49%. But just RM 6 million or 5.43% increase in trade payable.

·         MITRA maybe give up the quarry division due to its revenue decreasing and its finished good inventory is zero during year 2014.

·         MITRA is giving up its Healthcare division by announcement on 15/4/2015 that intention to dispose all its 51% shareholding in Optimax Eye Specialist Centre Sdn Bhd.

·         MITRA’s ROE currently is 7^th highest in Construction Sector.

·         MITRA’s price CAGR along year 2010 till today recorded 7.57%.

·         MITRA going get away from Healthcare and Quarry division, both these combined contributed 5.45% of total revenue last year. It just small part to MITRA.

Additional Information

·         Latest treasury shares amounted to 2,357,446.

·         Form 28A and 28B mean Notice Of Shares Buy Back By A Company and Notice of Sale or Cancellation of Treasury Shares respectively.

·         MITRA sold 1,010,200 treasury shares in year 2015. Its activity starts from 26/6/2015 to 6/7/2015.

·         CEO, Tan Eng Piow holding 40.48% shareholding in end of April 2014.

·         EPF is 2nd biggest shareholders with holding 2.23%.

·         Target price of investment firm:

1.    Kenanga - RM 2.35

2.    HLG - RM 2.92

3.    RHB-OSK - RM 2.03

·         Proposed bonus issue on the basic of 1 for 2 existing ordinary shares.

·         Proposed free warrant issue on the basic of 1 for 5 existing ordinary shares.

·         Proposed ESOS.

·         Those proposed subject's ex-date is 17/8/2015.

·         Annual report 2014 mentioned Malaysia's construction industry expected significant growth at 10.7% in 2015.

·         MITRA's construction activities strong backed by mega highways, rail-lines and affordable housing projects in Klang Valley and Putrajaya. Its unbilled sales boosted RM 1.88 billion.

·         Wangsa 9 Residency project which launch since mid-2014 recorded unbilled sales of RM 156.75 million. Gross development value of this project estimated RM 680 million and expected contribute earning to Group from 2015 until completion of project in 2018.

·         Proposed mixed development project and affordable home project at Puchong Prima with combined gross development value of RM 1.57 billion.

 * Photorefractive keratectomy is 镭射眼睛 (Healthcare division)

·         From pie chart above, we can clearly see that primary business is Construction and secondary is Properties.

Business activities ( Derived from AR2014)

Q1''2015 Overview

·         Cleary view of diminishing performance on property development.

·         Construction, Investment in South Africa and Healthcare make an attractive record. Healthcare's result mainly due to disposal gain of office building with amount of RM 650,000.

·         Increased in revenue by RM 57 million or 55% compared Q1''2014.

·         Profit before tax is increasing RM 4 million or 29% compared Q1''2014.

·         Net profit is increasing RM 3 million or 26% compared Q1''2014.

Question

1.    Why worst result from year 2011 to 2012.

2.    Why positive result on investing cash flow in year 2013.

3.    Why positive result on financing cash flow in year 2014 and Q1''2015.

4.    Why negative result on operating cash flow in Q1''2015.

5.    What are latest unbilled sales of MITRA.

Answer

1.    Director explained it as reduced contribution from both the construction and local property development divisions.

2.    Mainly due to disposed 6 million ordinary shares in Rawang Specialist Hospital for cash RM 10,126,032 to Kumpulan Perubatan Johor.

3.    In year 2014, due to RM 18 million and RM 10 million of banker acceptance and short term revolving credit respectively.

4.    Because inventories increased with amount of RM 35 million in Q1''2015.

5.    RM 1.75 billion outstanding order book in end of Q1''2015.

本文只供参考。共勉之。

9261 GADANG

GADANG 是一间建筑股，同时也有做房地产和水力发电的业务。这三样是公司的主要业绩来源。而公司有个王牌，那就是位于新山的Capital City。这项目在未来的5或6年会来给公司不错的业绩，而且公司估计 Profit after tax 高达 RM 219 million。以单单这产业带来的盈利来计算，这相等于每股 RM1。另外公司在印尼的水力发电厂预计在2016年完成，水力业务在未来将带给公司 RM 20 million 的年业绩（得知于公司的CFO）。接下来看看功课吧：

Data Analysis

• EPS's CAGR from year 2010 to 2015 recorded 15%, this mean GADANG growing at rate 15% compound each year.

• Average free cash flow yield, CY (exclude year 2010 and 2011 due to negative FCF) has a attractive result 11%. My criteria on CY are minimum 4%.

• Profit before tax (PBT) made good result in year 2014 with increased of 94.3% compared to 2013.

• Incur loss in year 2011 due to the massive increase on "other expense", director explained mainly due to higher write-offs of bad debts and impairment of goodwill of RM 11.15 million.

• Gross profit margin maintained above 16% for several years.

• Warrant is issued in year 2014 so diluted EPS will be 19.98 cents. Number of ordinary shares contains 216,359,957 included exercise of warrant which amounted to 19,688,739 units.

• Tremendous rise on cash in year 2013 is due to the trade receivable decreased. Latest result of cash per share worth RM1, this is seize 71% of share pirce. 

• Net cash of GADANG is RM 28 million or RM 0.13 per share.

• Latest NTA is RM 1.68, this is higher than the current share price, and there is 18% difference on it.

• ROE is snowballing and made 14.5% in year 2014, this result is double the record 7.8% previous year.

• By combining the latest four quarter report, the EPS of GADANG is 20.52 cents so the PE at current price is 6.92. This level of PE can consider GADANG is undervalue-ing.

• Previous record of DY, it is maintained at around 3%.

• Account based earning valuation model giving the intrinsic value on GADANG with RM 2.30, here present 38% margin of safety and 62% of upside potential.

• JF APEX giving the target price of RM 1.98, here present 28% margin of safety and 39% of upside potential.

• Fong Siling is one of the top 30 shareholders, he holding 1,500,000 shares.

• Few funds are support the GADANG, for example CIMB Islamic Fund, EPF and Philip Capital.

Annual Report 2014 Analysis

• GADANG expand its utility division (construction, maintenance and management of facilities to provide treated water supply) in Indonesia by acquiring 60% stake in PT Ikhwan Mega Power, the holder of a 9 megawatt hydro power concession in Kabupaten Tanah Datar, Sumatera Barat.

• Business principally involved in civil engineering and construction, property development, water supply, mechanical and electrical engineering services and oil palm plantation.

• GADANG own 34 subsidiaries companies, there are 5 Constructions, 1 Mechanical and Electric Works, 20 Property Developments, 2 Plantation and 6 Utility.

• Construction Division own strong outstanding order book of RM 1.3 billion.

• GADANG feel challenge on Property Division. Unbilled property sales stand at RM 155 million.

• Construction, Property and Utility is the core division of GADANG.

• Construction contributed 81% of total revenue; it awarded a RM 350 million contract for the RAPID project.

• Property contributed 16% of total revenue, GADANG launched development at Salak South, KL. Project comprises 800 units’ condo and 10 units 3 storey shop office.

• Utility contributed 2.7% of total revenue; construction of hydro power plant in Indonesia is expected completed by year 2016.

• Plantation is face challenge in future due to oil palm plantation land getting scarce and expensive, GADANG looking for joint ventures with land owners around Ranau area.

• Inventories decrease lot compared year 2013 is due to the properties held for sales is zero in 2014.

• Operating cash flow negative result is due to the high increase on receivable with RM 72,285,272.

• Investing cash flow positive result due to disposal of asset, properties and PPE.

• Financing cash flow positive result due to large portion in drawdown of bank borrowings amounted to RM 106,862,912.

• Unrealized loss on FOREX with amount RM 473,252 while RM 35,894 recorded in year 2013.

• The CEO participate lot of acquire and disposed stock transaction during year 2014.

• Construction, property development, investment holding and plantation division is carried out in Malaysia.

• Utility division is carried out in Indonesia.

• Investment holding division also operated in Singapore.

Quarter Analysis

• Table above show the three core division and excluded investment holding and plantation both division revenue due to make it simple. 

• Q1''2015, increase in revenue and profit before tax was mainly due to higher contributions from construction activities.

• Q2''2015, GADANG didn’t explained the reason on the decrease in revenue. They try to evade the issues.

• Q3''2015, increase in revenue is due to higher construction and property activities as well as the new acquisition of PT Dewata Bangun Tirta (utility activities) on 5 Nov 2014. Decreased in PBT is due to Construction division which additional cost for completed projects and increase in operating expenses arising from tax penalty.

• GADANG expect Utility Division contributed RM 20 million of revenue in FY2016.

•  A detail article which response by CFO of GADANG. Here the link.

本文只供参考。共勉之。