0093 SOLUTN

最近，马来西亚的政治风险一波未平，一波又起。这使得股市一直被外资抛售了连续几天，同时股市连续泻了几天，从星期一的1767.38跌到现在的1735.93，足足跌了1.81%。所以上星期都没什么看股市，一直专注在寻找潜力股和做功课。

不多说了，先说主题。这次又来一间冷眼加码的公司了，而且这次的码也加得蛮大的哦，差0.24%就跃升为公司的主要股东了。另外公司的主要股东是Mr.Lim Yong Hew（这位是SOLUTN的创始人）和Mr.Lim Hai Guan（这位是执行董事），这两位是公司的两大股东而第三大股东就是冷眼了。。。这是冷眼目前这几月手上增持和减持的公司：

                                                               （图片摘自这里）

然后这是前几天开始做的功课：

• SOLUTION ENGINEERING HOLDINGS (0093, SOLUTN) belong to category of Ace Market.

• Growth rate on EPS from year 2013 to 2014 has a massive record of 364%.

• Revenue also has a high growth rate of 183% from year 2013 to 2014. This is due to the completion of project.

• Total asset and total liability has growth rate of 42% and 214% respectively from year 2013 to 2014.

• Cash has a CAGR of 26% from year 2010 to 2014. Healthy cash company.

• ROE for year 2014 has a favorable result.

• PE in year 2014 around the edge of 10, worth to invest in this stock.

• DY also around the fixed deposit rate of bank, which is 4.76% in year 2014.

• From those data above, year 2013 to 2014 is a biggest turning point for SOLUTN.

• Fong Siling, 冷眼 become the 3rd biggest shareholder in year 2015 and he holding near 5% or 9,660,000 of total share outstanding. I am first time c his largest holding of quantity in company.

• Fong Siling may trust the future view of SOLUTN due to the largest of shareholding.

• My valuation on SOLUTN is giving the price of 0.54, which having the potential upside of 74%.

• CY, Cash Yield in year 2014 is attractive.

• SOLUTN principally in the business of designing and development of equipment for biolubricant project and for engineering education and research and provision of training and curriculum content development.

• Approximately 20% of SOLUTN’s sales is exported and quoted in USD.

• Recent completed project in year 2014 under state water operator SAINS (Syarikat Air Negeri Sembilan Sdn Bhd (SAINS), has opened a door for SOLUTN to other state water operators.

• The Group operates predominantly in Malaysia.

• SOLUTN established credible reputation in both the domestic and international markets.

• SOLUTN also mentioned that they are confident for the result in biggest investment in the automotive lubricants business by move to bigger factory to tap into growing lubricants market.  

• Segmental report on category of sale and geographical location is not provided in annual report.

• Annual General Meeting (AGM) on date 16/6/2015. Proposed of share buyback and ESOS.

• SOLUTN mentioned that has potential contract on pipeline and prospect achieved better financial result in end of year 2015.

• Q1''2015 showed that revenue and net profit is increased of 121% and 182% for Q1''2015 and Q1''2014 respectively.

• This impressive result is due to the improvement in revenue and profit was attributable to higher sales, better profit margin, better project cost control and management and favorable forex.

最后功课完毕。如有不恰之处请见谅 ^_^

本文只供参考。共勉之。

RED "BEAR" 红熊来了吗？

今天的股市上了几点后就经不起考验一路向南了。。。这时候就有考验大家是不是患有羊群症了。。。对自己手上的公司有信心的投资者会继续持有自己的股票；相反对自己手上所握住的公司没信心就会跟着羊群一起被”熊“骗去向南的方向奔驶。很多人因为看到自己手上的股票的利润/亏损一度再一度地蒸发/扩大，然后过不了自己的那关然后把手头上所有公司割爱了。当熊市已过，被割爱的公司又回到了原点或更高点，这时只能在旁心痛自己当时为何卖了心爱的公司。。。所以投资者的心态时时刻刻都是最重要了 ^_^ 我深信经过时间和考验，所以人的心态会更上一层楼。

另外，我上个星期五对马来西亚TOP20公司做了一项简单的记录，然后今天闭市后也对上星期五TOP20的公司再做一项简单的记录。下图就是这两天对TOP20公司的市值做了一个比较：

20间公司的平均下跌的巴仙是大约1%左右，这和今天FBM KLCI下跌的1.13%差不远 ^_^ 当然这也不能证明什么，我只是看看在跌了20.12点的股市会对TOP20公司的市值有什么影响。最后希望一马公司（1MDB）的问题快快解决，这样大家就可以趁小熊市时买几间已被贬值的公司。

本文只供参考。共勉之。

5236 MATRIX

本来有睡意的一个晚上，突然心血来潮想做功课，金群利 （5236，MATRIX）自然而然变成我想做功课的目标，然后马上打开电脑开始动工，一动做动了几个小时，做完对Matrix的分析后，这间公司的业绩跟（7235，SUPERLN）有点相似。在今年的3月3号对SUPERLN做完分析后一直想在低价位买进公司的股票，不过没有想到那时就是低价位。当时的RM0.79跳到今天的RM1.46。。。两月后足足跳了84.8%。。不知道MATRIX会不会也如此（自己已经没子弹进场了）。。。。MATRIX两月后会不会也跳了84.8%飞到RM 6.15的价位呢？哈哈哈哈，我开始发梦了= =

由于MATRIX只有两年的数据，所以功课也自然少了。

• The Group operates predominantly in Malaysia.

• Company's primary business activities are sales of development properties. Sales of completed properties and Education services are the subordinate business. 

• The Board has adopted a dividend policy of paying out about 40% of the Group’s consolidated profit after tax.

• Q1''2015's net profit is 63% of whole year's net profit in 2014. Here got an important point, it is just a quarter's result!!!!

• Profit margin is excellent; RM1 of sales can earn net profit around RM0.30.

• Matrix is giving total 4 times of dividend within a year. 2013 special dividend, 2014 bonus issue, 2015 special dividend, lastly 2016 is......?

• The total borrowing per share is increasing 200% within few months.

• My valuation on stock is giving this stock of RM5.96 (Act like got bit overstate on it, haha). This is 44% of MOS at price of RM3.33.

• Q1''2015 report showed the decreasing of trade payable and increasing of trade receivable by RM 57 million and RM85 million respectively is the main reason of negative cash flow from operation.

• Proceed from term loan in financing amounted to RM 77 million. This makes the positive result from financing cash flow.

• Positive sign of financing cash flow maybe result that company is using debt to pay shareholders dividend.

• Matrix has a high percentage of ROE which maintained at 27%+ previous two years.

• PE and DY match my criteria. Construction sector's average PE is 29 in April 2015. From the view of PE and DY, Matrix is valuable to invest.

• There is just two years of historical data of Matrix, so the result of financial ratio showed maybe not strong.    

• Matrix target to launch new projects amounting to a gross development value (“GDV”) of RM1 billion in Negeri Sembilan and Johor in FY2015, which will lay the Group’s foundation to deliver stronger growth in the near future. 

• In February 2015, the Group completed the acquisition of an additional 164 acres of industrial land near Sendayan TechValley. The new tract of land, to be named Sendayan TechPark, would boost our balance net saleable land bank to 310 acres from about 187 acres currently.

• Annual report 2014 is described briefly about flow of all projects. Further information can refer to Matrix Q1''2015 Slides.   

看了以上分析后，再看下图。（个人比较喜欢用半桶水的英文来分析数据 ^_^ ，如有错误请多多原谅）

以上的图我是从KLSE Screener里统计出来的数据。然后以上是根据和MATRIX同行业，也就是做产业生意。另外再用Market Capital（市值）来做顺序排序。从上面的数据我们可以看到在众多市值高过MATRIX来比较，MATRIX的EPS，PE，DY和ROE都胜过其他公司。这数据也让我觉得MATRIX是间目前会闪闪发亮的产业公司。SPSETIA这位产业龙头的市值是MATRIX的5倍。。。怕怕。。。。

本文只供参考。共勉之。

5197 FLBHD

今天FLBHD交了失望的成绩。。。功课如下：

以上季Q1''2014来比较，得到的结论是：
1. Revenue 下跌了20.58%, Net profit也下跌了18.77% 。
季报里面表示：“Decrease in revenue in current quarter was mainly due to quantity sold to USA was lower, as a result of delay in arrival of vessel departing to USA。” 售量的减少和船只的拖延造就了以上的下跌。

2. Segment Reporting里也表示Manufacturing下跌了20%。而Electricity上升了些许。如图：

3. 高层说美元的上升让FLBHD的Profit margin上升了，以上面功课来说的确上升了些许。另外高层也打算减少对人力资源的依赖，转向收购更多的机械。最后高层也对今年的业绩有信心。

4. FLBHD的Unrealised gain on foreign exchange上升了235%，从RM (216, 000) 升到RM 292,000。

5. 这季FLBHD累计了总额RM 72,816,000的现金。Cash per share 是 RM0.71，期待公司未来如果用这笔庞大的现金。上面的功课请忽略2015年的PE和ROE因为这两个目前是以季来算。

6. 最后本人对公司未来的发展有信心。就算公司的股价跌了，还有RM 0.80 cents的股息或者5%+的DY来安慰我的心灵^_^。另外，在我心中的FLBHD是值RM2.03的公司，以目前的股价，margin of safety高达28.5%了。

本文只供参考。共勉之。

0049 OCNCASH

今天本来想对MATRIX和MITRA之间做功课的，不过突然看到一位网友POST一只冷眼前辈今年新买进的公司，那就是以上标题。然后就不多加思考就马上跳过MATRIX和MITRA，直接对OCNCASH做功课了。功课不包括介绍公司，因为这些都可以上网询问“酷哥” ^_^

In 2014, amount owning to director is 1,042,550 compared with 2,150,151 in 2013.

冷眼 holding 0.22% or 502k of shares on year 2015.

Revenue is increasing year by year but the net profit drop a 24% on year 2014 from 2013. This is due to the loss of disposal of Polyethylene (PE) Modular machine.

Account based earning valuation model giving the intrinsic value of 0.45 which is MOS  24% of current price.

第一天's analysis giving 0.657 as intrinsic value and MOS is 48% of current price.

Total borrowing per share is higher than cash per share by 0.01. Insufficient cash company.

The entire Graham’s valuation is overvalued to the current price.

EPS's CAGR is attractive because 28% from 2010 to 2014. In addition, the price has a CAGR of 48% from 2010 to 2014. Capital gain of 投机 in short term maybe suitable.

From the both EPS and price's CAGR, the PE on 2015 is focasted at 17.87. Overvalued from the averaged KLCI PE coz price's CAGR higher than EPS's CAGR.

P/B, PE and DY not match my criteria on stock.

Tan Siew Chin and Chen Lee Chew both husband and wife is the CEO and Non-Independent Non-Executive Director respectively in company.

Net loss on disposal of property, plant and equipment accounted to RM1, 685,044.

Administrative expenses increased 22% or RM870k to make the operating profit going down.

COGS increased 9% while revenue increase 6% from 2013 to 2014.

There is using of cash in investing of purchasing the property, plant and equipment accounted to RM8.3 million. This amount is buying the land and building. This makes negative cash in 2014 with amount RM 2,407,238.

Future growth of the company is optimistic. Suggested to buy if EPS in future is giving favorable result. Look forward to the result Q1''2015.

本文只供参考。共勉之。

Compound Interest (复利)

最近本人发现本人的理解能力真的很慢和有待进步。。。因为在最近才真真了解到复利的真真意义。在股海漫游这一年里，读了不少书；看了不少文章；听了不少新闻，至今天才了解复利真的突然觉得自己好迟钝。。。复利其实是个在本金上利上加利的意思，它会把原本已经加上利息的本金再继续加利息，这个过程会一直滚啊滚啊滚把本金提升了不少（当然要在高巴仙的利息）。例子如下文：

原本1KG的雪球，在雪地上滚了一圈后变成2KG的雪球，这时雪球已经是2KG的雪球了。然后2KG的雪球再滚一圈变成了2.5KG的雪球，然后2.5KG的雪球再滚第三圈就变成了3.3KG的雪球，这样的雪球滚了再滚就越变越重了。这个就是复利的概念了。

还是不明白的话可以看看这个图，本人是在做了这个复利的excel过程中才真真了解。。。。

Invested value是本金，也就是开始投资的钱，在整个过程中是完全没有用到自己的钱哦，除了那个RM 1000。上面的4到30是在一年里所赚到的巴仙，我们可以见在每年4%的情况下，我们可以在18年后得到RM2000，总共利用了每年4%和18年后来让我们的本金增加了一倍或1番了。另外看看10%，需要让本金翻了一倍只需要8年。4%需要18年而10%需要8年来让本金1番。所以就算是相差1%，在经过数年时间的累积也会相差很大的。说真的，一切看图就完全明白了复利~~

本文只供参考。共勉之。

Share Repurchase (回购股票)

回购股票的意思是公司用自己的现金或者贷款来买自己公司的股份。每当公司宣布要回购自己公司的股票时，公司的价格都会在短期内飙升，所以会在短期内吸引了很多投资和投机者买相关公司。

回购股票的利多于弊，如下：

利，

1. 公司的EPS会提升因为股份(total outstanding of share) 增加了。

2. 减少公司股价的波动。

3. 公司卖出所回购股份的价位时会得到capital gain。这提供了投资机会给公司。

4. 公司回购股份的原因是公司的价值被低估了。

弊，

1. 减少公司的财务资源。

2. 公司的cash flow 会被影响。(如果借钱回购股票，net cash in financing activities会非常高)

3. 回购股票的现金可能投资在其他领域会更有潜质。如买地，收购公司，扩展业务等。

写这篇文章草稿的同时，本人今天放假回家看到两本东西，那是

(5197,FLBHD) 和 (7803, RUBEREX)会各别在5月20号和21号召开Annual General Meeting (AGM)，希望股东们高抬贵手把重要的票投给支持公司回购股票的提议。

本文只供参考。共勉之。