2015年10月26日星期一

转帖——《资本增值重要还是股息重要》

逆风前辈,写得非常好!!!给你多多个like!!!

资本增值重要还是股息重要


年轻的我,一路来靠着摸索,直到一段时间过后,在股票投资上跑的策略,都是注重资本增值,不是股息。现在的我跑的策略是否有改变,还有待考验。

在选股与买入股票时,我非常注重股息。我注重股息,不是因为我要它的股息。奇怪,注重又不要,是不是自打嘴巴,很矛盾?

没有,一点也不矛盾。先压下疑问听我说。

买入一个股票时,我很注重那个股有没有给像样的股息。听好,是像样的,不是有没有而已。能够年年给像样股息的股,从另一个角度看,公司肯定是赚钱的,还是那种相当赚钱的。除了赚钱,现金流一般都不会有问题。当然公司总不会笨到明明不赚钱,却年年自讨腰包或向银行借钱给股东像样的股息。年年不赚钱的公司,也不会有银行笨到年年借钱给它发像样的股息吧。所以,从简单的会计原理,年年能够给像样股息的公司,账目表balance sheet 和现金流cash flow 应该已经过关了。

一间公司的底干净了,接下来我就可以免去不少的烦恼,在选择股票时也能省去许多时间去看许多密密麻麻的数据,做许许多多的计算,也不会中做假帐的圈套。我能直接跳去考虑公司的经营模式与前景。投资变得轻松简单的多。

买入了经过财务过滤的股票,我就等着公司的成长,等着公司股票的增值。一旦股票增值了许多,我就会收伞收割了,那区区的一点股息(与资本增值比较),我是不会在意的。

为什么我选择卖出高涨了的股票而不选择继续拥有收取股息呢?原因如下:

1. 作为年轻人,资金还不充裕。先套利了,就会有一笔充裕的现金。过后,我会从套利中抽出一部分作为“花费”或后备花费,减去日常生活的财务压力之外,也能享受投资的成果,享受投资的乐趣,从而能够更加坚持地培养对股票投资的兴趣。

2. 对我来说,资本增值的复利作用固然重要。但是,懂得人生的意义更为重要。要是为了资本增值的复利作用,为了将来更快达到财务自由,而牺牲眼前的“享受”,增加生活上的心理压力与实质压力,我认为有些本末倒置,有些矫枉过正。因为人生没有take two, 我宁愿用更长的时间达到财务自由,也不要将太多“困苦”置入生活中,牺牲年轻时期的“快乐时光”。这就是为何我用那么长的时间来达到财务自由---资本小固然是一个因素,稳打稳扎确保万无一失的同时也不挤压生活素质才是真正的原因。所谓长命功夫长命做,学会了投资,个人的资产年年都能增加,在不牺牲生活素质的前提下,迟些达到财务自由,又有何妨呢?

3. 利用部分利润投资再投资,周而复始,资金总会增加的。到了某个阶段,投资经验丰富了,股票投资的掌控也更能得心应手时,资金也正好滚大了。这时正是投资者大展宏图的时候。这就是为何投资者后期的回酬往往一年就能超越过去开始投资时的二十余年。

4. 在大马股市里,除了银行股与少数行业股如电讯股等表现比较突出,很少其他公司能够长久地经营并壮大。很多公司在风光十年八年或顶多一二十年之后,就没落了,甚至再也没有立足之地了。所以,在大马股市里,能够长期投资的股项其实并不多。这使到大部分的投资者都以波段或周期投资为主要目的。投资一个股项,若干年后看到股价起了相当可观,也就套利了结去了。

5. 在大马股市里(其他市场或许也是如此),牛市熊市都有循环期。一个股,每每在牛市里起了多少倍,然后在熊市来临后,股价又会掉去一大截。股票在牛市里起了几倍,投资者如果不卖出,往往都会在熊市的跌势中彷徨无措。也许熊市刚开始时他能坚持,但是到了中途或后期,相信绝大部分的投资者都会放弃。能够做到与股票长厢厮守的人可说寥寥无几。我自己嘛,早期到一段时间也做不到。后期因为再也没中枪过,不知是否还能做到。所以,要是明知道自己做不到,与其在熊市中途放弃卖掉,赚少了大部分,继续持有又是未知数,倒不如就在获利丰厚时就了结。

6. 要是股票资本增值有好几倍时我们卖了,就会有几倍的利润。下回股市处于低潮时,我们就会有更充裕的资金重新出发。利润滚利润,财富就会增值的更快。要是选择不套利,往往就会为了那区区的股息而让资本增值变成是实际上的消失。要是将来该股不会再起回,也许一二十年的股息也弥补不了那消失了的资本增值。


纵观以上几点,我认为年轻人买的如果不是蓝筹股的话,采用资本增值法投资应该是比较理想与实际的。我们不要迷恋什么理论,什么长期投资。理论毕竟终归是理论,实际操作又是另一回事。我们要先自问自己,自己能做到什么,又不能做到什么,什么是最适合自己的。如果大家还不了解自己,要给自己机会和考验,当然没有问题,毕竟投资的磨练是必须通过实战来获取的。

摘自 http://nifong.blogspot.my/2015/10/blog-post_61.html

2015年10月18日星期日

油棕の功课 Palm Oil's homework (二)

This second article of palm oil is discussing its data since year 2011 to 2015. Data included Export of Palm Oil, Country which imported Malaysia’s Palm Oil and CPO (Crude Palm Oil) price. So data is divided into three main parts, and then each of the part will consists of data which compare year 2014 and 2015. I also explaining the important point of each data only, the simple is the best. Hope everyone is understood the flow of the data because it will be easier to match understanding on my data.

Part I Export of Palm Oil


As table below above, data shows:
·         Declining trend
·         Head part of the year is low export.
·         Tail part of the year is high export.
·         Year 2013 is the highest export.
·         Uptrend since year 2008 to 2011 (MPOC website latest data started from year 2008).
·         October always the highest export.
·         February always the lowest export.


 As table below above, data shows:
·         Feb is the worst month.
·         Export uptrend continuously since May.

Part II Country which imported Malaysia’s Palm Oil


As table below above, data shows:
·         No stable trend on the total export to top seven countries.
·         EU (European Union) always uptrends.
·         Import palm oil of China decreased approximately 29% from 2011 to 2014.
·         Import palm oil of India increased 93% from 2011 to 2014.
·         India is the country most need palm oil, followed by China and EU.


As table below above, data shows:
·         Pakistan and USA decreased their import .
·         Philippines and India increased their import.
·         Total export to top seven countries is increased slightly.

 Part III CPO (Crude Palm Oil) price


As table below above, data shows:
·         Monthly average price of CPO is decreasing since 2011.
·         August 2015 recorded the lowest CPO price since 2011.
·         Head of year is verified high CPO price.
·         Tail of year is noted low CPO price.
·         Theory of low export, high CPO price applied.
·         Downtrend revealed.


As table below above, data shows:
·         Year 2015 is worst year.
·         Feb 2015 to May 2015 reduced extremely when compared with corresponding month.


·         Downtrend for the CPO price
·         Theory of palm oil versus CPO price failed applied on year 2014.
·         CPO price in 2014 lower than 2013 even its export is lower than 2013.
  
Comments:
I am confident for the export of palm oil in future few months for this year. Data shows the tail of year always pass up the attractive result in each year, so the result in this end of year will be get better than last year and come to be the total export being uptrend in this year. Additionally, the point for each of the data above mentioned is useful for us to pick the plantation stock. I personally prefer to buy in month which the CPO price is low because the “Mr. Market” always sensitive to the CPO price. As the low CPO price caused by high export so September and October maybe a good pick.


Here I attached a 20 years CPO price chart. From chart, we can see there are present of identical movement during year 1997 to 1999 and year 2006 to 2008. Both 1997 and 2007 happened Asian Financial Crisis and Global Financial Crisis respectively. Here exist one point again, CPO price going high during financial crisis. By the way, here is the question: “When is the date for financial crisis in future?” Moreover, chart also shows there is downtrend started from year 2010 until today. In the end, when is the rebound of this downtrend? My answer is “maybe soon” but that is impossible for us to forecast its future exactly because we are not the “Mr. Market”. 


本文只供参考。共勉之。

2015年10月14日星期三

油棕の功课 Palm Oil's homework (一)


在多间上市公司里,相信很多人多很怕接触到跟种植领域(Plantation Sector)有联系到的公司因为大家都觉得现在种植股还没热,同时潮也还没来。这篇文章会关于到我个人对种植股的看法,如有差错请各位大大指点,毕竟有错才会学习,有学习才会进步嘛。另外这篇文章主要是攻油棕领域的,所以一切看法都跟油棕离不了身。

First, we need to discuss about the phase of palm oil because it is very important for us to understand the cycle of palm oil. So, total stages of palm oil are three, that are Cultivating (培育), Harvesting(收获)and Processing处理).

1. Cultivating
This stage is including selection and plantation of seeds. During the progress of selection, there may approximately cut off 7% of failed seeds and after others 93% seeds are being selected successfully and then required 6 months to grow up. From this stage to next stage is required between 3 to 5 years to proceed to next stage.

2. Harvesting
The planted seeds are growing up to palm oil tree and this palm oil will continue to mature. As the palm oil continues to mature, their yield also will increased and those of them generally reach peak production between their 7th to 18th years of growth. Besides that, the palm oil able to produce fruit for harvest within 4 to 6 years of planting. Here present of one term which always used by media on the fruit, that is FFB (Fresh Fruit Bunch).

3. Processing
Here is the stage of farmer maintain the quality of palm oil, there are consist a lot of strategies and I think this is not related with the trend of palm oil discussed so I am just skip it.

Ok, here the summary of above three stages. Company required to use 3 to 5 years to enable the palm oil planted is going to the harvest stage. Harvest stage of company will boost the sales and net profit, so we need to know the date of initial stages to estimate probably on the harvest stage.

Besides that, we also need to understand two key point, that is raining season would make fresh fruit's yield going faster in harvest stage while hot season is suitable for growing stage of palm oil. So, normally end of the year will be the raining season (this is the reason flood always happened in end of the year) and this will boost the sales for quarterly report in October to December.


Furthermore, do you know any product which made by the palm oil? The picture above will show you the way. All of the product can find easily in the supermarket and it is play an important role in our daily life. On the other hand, our country Malaysia is ranking number two for the palm oil plantation country. So actually the public listed plantation company may take few advantages in Malaysia because all of the export of palm oil to other country is depending to all of this public listed company. In my opinion, I am suggesting invest the plantation company which high market capitalization because they are linked close relationship with government and plays leader role in plantation sector. Example of plantation blue chip companies are IOICORP and KLK, both of this company valued approximate RM 25 billion.

So, this article is about what I am understood about the fundamental of palm oil. In future, I will keep updating this article every moment that I know the new knowledge about palm oil. Thanks for read ya ^_^ 

PS: Next article will discussing the data statistic of palm oil.

待续。。。《油棕の功课 Palm Oil's homework (二)》


2015年10月10日星期六

《9次面试后的经验》


经过两个月的“面试”考验,个人觉得应该分享一些面试心得,以让一些刚毕业的 Fresher 少撞点板。说真的,我差不多是一星期面试一次,多数都是早上坐八点半的巴士去吉隆坡然后再搭晚上7点的巴士回来,待在吉隆坡的时间都差不多贡献了12个小时。不多说了,直接切入主题!

首先先介绍找工作的网站,那就是 Jobstreet,相信大家对这个网站也非常得熟悉,毕竟在马来西亚是出了名。找工作的时候最好找一个字,那就是“Fresh graduate is encouraged to apply”,我找工作的时候最喜欢看到这个字眼了。另外 Jobstreet 也有上市哦,公司代码是 0058 JOBST。在我印象中,这间公司在不久前派了很丰厚的股息然后就实行了 Reverse stock split,这个词大家可能比较少见,因为公司把股份变小然后股价同时变高了。这里的股价是变高,不是被推高,双方差距很大的。又离题了,拉回我的真身先,哈哈。

在面试前,大家一定要做一些功课,以让他们知道你是有备而来,要准备的功课是:

1. Briefly describe yourself.
2. What is your career goal?
3. What is your strength?
4. What is your weakness?
5. Are you understand the job scope of respective position?
6. Why you want join us?
7. Did you know any information about our company?
8. Any question you want to ask us?

以上是 Interviewer 多数会问你的题目,你只要上网站打下 Google,再打下的题目,基本上就没问题了。功课真的很重要,我个人觉得我第9次面试成功主要是因为我有上网查+被他们的公司背景。

另外因为我们是刚毕业的学生,所以HR基本上不会问高难度的问题了,除非他/她不知道你刚毕业。对于一个 Fresher 来讲,个人觉得一定要让坐在你对面的人知道你是一个非常愿意学习的人,毕竟我们刚毕业是属于零经验或工作菜鸟。另外,也要让坐在你对面的人知道你对这份工作非常有兴趣,而且抱着热诚来面试的。

除此之外,个人觉得 Intern 时的工作岗位和经验是非常得重要。有些公司是看你 Intern时候的 Job scope 来决定要不要聘请你。就像我在 Tokio Marine 面试的例子,他们找我去面试主要是因为我实习的时候主要是用账务软件来做账的,而刚好他们公司新的 project 需要一些了解电脑软件。

去面试之前一定要准备充足,不要让你的 Interviewer 等你回答他们的题目。然后回答他们题目的时候一定要看着他们的眼睛或跟他们有眼神交流,以让他们知道你不是在背书给他们听。另外,我个人比较 prefer 多位 Interviewer,因为这样面试的场合不会那么尴尬,毕竟人多了,问的问题也多了,然后你的表现才可以更突出。

说真的,我现在才体验到读的科系不一定跟你做工的岗位 Match 到。其实当中的主因是因为在学校里教的东西跟学校外做的东西几乎是不一样的。有时自己最不想要,往往命中注定是你的;我就是一个很好的例子了。我其实本性是不喜欢 Account 的因为我喜欢看账多过做账,不过还是躲不过这个命运,以前实习时做账;现在做工的岗位是做账。有时我都在想是不是我的不喜欢吸引力法则太强了。。。这样我是不是应该想着不喜欢钱呢?哈哈哈。

最后祝各位 Fresher 早日找到自己钟意的工作岗位。共勉之。