2015年12月14日星期一

WTI Crude Oil Price VS KLSE Index

            First chart is WTI crude oil price while the next chart is index of Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE). By comparing both charts, we can evidently conclude that the WTI Crude Oil Price is direct linked to KLSE. When the WTI Crude Oil Price is going bearish, KLSE index will has a same moving with it too. I think this is because the core income of Malaysia is totally depending on the Petroleum. When international oil under over supply condition, oil price will going down and lastly affect the Petroleum Malaysia badly.

The detail of circle indicator as shown below:
i.              Dark Blue (1996) Asian financial crisis
ii.            Yellow (1998) Russian financial crisis
iii.           Green (2000) Dot-com bubble
iv.           Red (2002) Argentine economic crisis
v.            Light Blue (2008) Global financial crisis
vi.           Brown (2009) European sovereign debt crisis
vii.          Grey (2014) Russian financial crisis
viii.        Blue (14/12/2015) ???

Total consists of 8 indicators included 4 HEAD indicators and 4 TAIL indicators. HEAD is the top part of graph or BULL DIE while TAIL is the bottom part of graph or BEAR DIE. When bull going back home, the bear will replace its place to control the market and make it crash. A vice versa theory applied when bear going back home and replaced by bull.

By observe cautiously, we can realize that there are 3 trends from year 1995 to 2009. Trend 1 is from year 1996 to 1998; Trend 2 is from year 2000 to 2002; Trend 3 is from year 2008 to 2009. The entire trend is bearish trend which from the top part drop to the lower part.

On the other hand, the duration of Trend 1 is 3 years; Trend 2 is 3 years and lastly Trend 3 is 2 years. Hereby, we may conclude that the average bearish trend is 2.67 years. These 2.67 years may as the best chance and gold opportunity for intelligence investor to buy undervalue company in the stock market.

After we estimated the 2.67 years as the period of bearish trend, we should apply it to current market. As both charts above, the HEAD indicator recently is year 2014, so we will estimate the BOTTOM indicator at year August 2016. Is it the August 2016 is the end of bear? It may not; this is because the WTI price is showing a clearly shooting bottom trend while the Malaysia stocks market just a small adjustment.

Here one more question again, is it the current downtrend supported by the 20 million ValueCap? Who know it? Every professional speculator is trying to forecast the next year market trend but Mr. Market is not easier to be understood and even guess.

I as the investor is lacking of skill who speculator to forecast and guess the moving of market trend; I also can’t be hedger to limit my lose and maximize my profit due to insufficient fund so the one I can do is closing my ear and eyes to eliminate the news from internet and then observe plus wait patiently for the recovering of trend. 


本文只供参考。共勉之。

1 条评论:

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