2015年6月16日星期二

9717 SYCAL

号外,号外!又发现一间公司的 Net Net 大过本身的市价了。Graham Net Net 是用公司的流动资产(Current Asset)减掉总债务(Total Liabilities)再除于公司的总股票的数量(Number of Shares)。Benjamin Graham 是我其中一个师父,他的神作品——聪明的投资者(The Intelligent Investor)是我读过最有杀伤力的投资书籍了(我不只读过这一本书而已哦= =)。这连接是大约解释Net Net的概念。然后以上主题的公司就是其中一个例子了,它最新的 Net Net 是 RM 0.51而目前市价是 RM 0.415,中间相差于RM 0.095 或者22.89%。22.89%的利润算是不错了,因为以复利的力量来计算的话,大概3年就可以多一番了,也就是让资本双倍 ^_^ 接下来介绍 SYCAL 的功课:


Data Analysis
  • Average free cash flow yield, CY is negative sign with 5%, not my criteria to pick stock.
  • EPS's CAGR from year 2010 to 2014 has a nice-looking result, which is 74% per year.
  • PE is the factor of Price and EPS. PE and Price's CAGR from year 2010 to 2014 is -26% and 37% respectively. Negative sign on CAGR of PE is decent because the earning is expanding.
  • Earning of SYCAL is higher than the growth on PE and this is main reason of PE decreasing yearly.
  • Profit margin is upheld at level around 5% and then growth up to 8% in year 2014.
  • Profit growth rate is growing from year 2011 to 2014. And previous year up to 100.77%.
  • SYCAL is apply big amount of borrowing in year 2014. There is RM66, 198,000 or RM0.21 per shares.
  • Cash of SYCAL is rising to RM24, 921,000 or RM0.078 per shares. Insufficient cash for company to pay off those borrowing.
  • NTA (RM0.72) is higher than the stock price of SYCAL (RM0.42); there do exist a space between both with RM0.3 or 71.43%.
  • Satisfactory result on ROE with 15.74% in year 2014.
  • Top management never pays the dividend along the years.
  • Free cash flow of SYCAL is under dangerous level due to prior or recently two years with negative free cash flow result.
  • Graham Net Net giving SYCAL RM0.51, which is higher than the current price with RM0.09 or 21.42%. Graham Net Net is one of the effective ways to pick stock for Graham.
  • Due to some criteria of SYCAL, I think it is suitable for medium term investment. Long term investment will be considered if top management decides to break the rule and pay dividend.
  • RHB-OSK is giving the target price of RM0.555 (32% upside potential) in 13/4/2015.

Annual Report Analysis
  • Sycal's core business activity is construction which is contributed around 72% and secondary business activity is property development contributed 13% and lastly sales of good and service contributed 15%.
  • Construction order book approximately RM550 million.
  • In 2014, Sycal secured new joint venture project for proposed mix development in Sri Iskandar, Perak.
  • Property development activities included Cheras (KL), Sitiawan (Lumut and Segari), Taiping and Ipoh. This sustains the profit in the future 3 to 5years.
  • Director view that current construction order book and development projects in hands, overall performance in the ending of year 2015 expected satisfactory.
  • There is no any transaction record for director and substantial shareholders after year 2013.
  • Shareholder's fund in year 2009 is negative amount with RM99, 875,000.
  • Year 2010 such a turning point for SYCAL.
  • Year 2014 also such a DEBT YEAR for SYCAL because it long term and short term borrowing increased by RM60 millions or 3821% and RM2 million or 279% respectively.
  • Increased in the joint-venture development cost and decreased in amount to contract customer is the main issue of operating activities going negative result.
  • Joint venture development cost is increased RM51, 868,000 or 81% from year 2013 to 2014.
  • Joint-venture development in Perak maybe important to SYCAL because of this project, SYCAL apply huge borrowing to pay off its operating cash flow activities.
  • Positive result in financing cash flow is due to new proceeding of term loan.
  • Term loan's annual effective interest rates in year 2014 are around 8.10 to 9.35%.
  • Pengurusan Danaharta Nasional Berhad maybe is the "Touch & Go Card" to apply the great borrowing in year 2014.
  • Danaharta is holding 33.33% of total shareholding.
  • Danaharta is owned by Minister of Finance Incorporated. So we can be confident for SYCAL on the borrowing issues because it has the big backup in behind.
  • 資匯 got an essay discuss about the SYCAL in latest publish report No.330.
  • SYCAL operates principally in Malaysia.
Q1''2015 Analysis
  • 1st time sees quarter report online in excel form.
  • Comparing prior quarter Q1''2014 with latest Q1''2015, there is a upsurge on revenue and profit before tax with 86% and 72% respectively.
  • Cost of sales is increasing 94.7% by comparing Q1 with year 2014 and 2015.
  • Earnings per share, EPS are enhanced sound with 84.7%.
  • Cash of SYCAL is enlarged RM13, 163,000 or 86% within three months period.
  • Construction, Property Development and Manufacturing & Trading contributed 80%, 3.8% and 16.2% respectively.
  • Increased Group's revenue is mainly from the shopping mall project in Ipoh and the ready-mix concrete operation.
  • At 22 May, construction order book approximately RM550 million. There are ongoing development projects in Taiping, Segari and Ipoh and lastly Board feel satisfactory on performance of SYCAL.

本文只供参考。共勉之。


4 条评论:

  1. 版主的功课做得很好,请问版主怎么看homeriz呢?

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    回复
    1. 谢谢 ^_^ Homeriz的基本面不错,看好它收购剩余35%的Embrace未来的发。今年年头开始的家私股效应感觉还没减退,Hevea是个好例子。

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  2. 回复
    1. cash yield, 是跟这位大大学的 http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/76694.jsp

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