7160 PENTA

这星期看起来有点橱窗粉饰的效应，因为大马股市从星期一开市的1,634.34点冲到今天的1,693.14点。另外在今早十点多左右冲破了1,700点，过了不久就经不起前方的挑战就一直跌到今天闭市的1,693.14点了。明天就是31号了，也就是2015年的最一天，本人在这里衷心地祝大家新年快乐，身体健康，万事如意，忘掉今年不开心及不如意的事情，珍惜眼前人，明天及明年会更好！！最后当然少不了天天赚大钱！！哦！对了，忘了介绍今天的功课，那就是 PENTA：

Company Overview

·         Business:

1.    Innovative services in technological solutions, designing and manufacturing of precision machinery components, as well as design.

2.    Manufacturing of automated and semi-automated machinery and equipment

3.    Assembly and installation of computerized automation systems and equipment.

·         Main business can categorized as automated equipment (60%) and automated manufacturing solution (40%).

·         Company website: http://www.pentamaster.com.my/

Additional Information

·         Strengthening of US dollar will bring benefit to PENTA. Here prove from AR2014:"Pentamaster being a manufacturer in an export driven business, the depreciation of the Ringgit to certain extent benefited us."

·         New factory building is start being build up to increase the assembly and testing activities. Leasehold of land is cost RM 5,015,790 and PENTA paid 20% as initial payment.

·         In Q3''2015, PENTA disposed two subsidiaries, that are Pentamaster Engineering (M) Sdn Bhd and Pentamaster Solutions Sdn Bhd.

·         This two non-current asset are the heart of manufacturing in PENTA, so the business focused currently is designing.

·         PENTA also acquired Origo Ventures (M) Sdn Bhd in Q3''2015. Main business of Origo is Smart Home and Building Automation Solution for property and construction industry.

·         Target of RHB-OSK investment firm is RM 0.90.

·         Executive Director, Mr. Tan Boon Teik is sold nearly 2% of total share outstanding and his latest holding share % approximately 6.22%.

·         CEO, Mr Chuah Chong Ewe was just appointed as CEO in February 2015 and his buying price of PENTA is RM 0.750 with 3 % of share outstanding.

·         From table, we can see the trend in year 2014 is uptrend and then current trend of EPS in year 2015 same uptrend too.

·         Each of the quarter made up to 100% growth rate improvement on EPS by comparing same quarter in both years.

·         *EPS mainly contributed by "other income" which weighted 2.17 EPS. If excluded this EPS, PENTA may made 1.93 EPS in Q3, there increased 28% if compared with Q3''2014.

Personal Comment

·         Above information show PENTA was disposed its manufacturing asset which accounts 40% of revenue and this must covered by new business entered in property and construction industry.

·         New business's performance in next quarter result is important for determine the effectiveness and efficiencies of new entered business activity.

·         To understand deeply on the new business acquired by PENTA, may Google or YouTube search the word “Internet of Things". That is the main services provided by Origo.

·         I think the services provided by PENTA may target on the customer who prefer high quality of security and facilities of HOME. So the customer may categorize as middle income or upper income group.

·         PENTA is zero dividend payout company.

·         Year 2013 may turning year to PENTA, because it is turn the net loss to net positive and PENTA's effort on clearing borrowing of company in this year can clearly be seen.

·         PENTA also start to accumulate its holding cash since year 2013.

·         ROE is increasing since year 2013 too and step to latest trailing three quarter result with 14.47%.

·         Current PE and ROE is attractive with result 8 and 17.52% respectively.

·         Earning valuation model and DCF model are giving intrinsic value of RM 0.709 and RM 0.98 respectively.

本文只供参考。共勉之。

7229 Favco

美国 FED 终于在前两天宣布升息0.25%了，这是美国踏入更强国的第一步，毕竟美国是各国家里是最突出的那位而且全部国家都以它为头。另外耶伦在未来会慢慢地把息升去1.25%，所以以后可能还需要升4次息了。然后，在美国宣布升息的当天，世界各地的股市跟着美国一起跳高，不过跳高的下一天就拉着降落伞紧急降落。最后，美国的升息会对世界的股市和经济有什么影响呢？个人觉得短期内美国会强势然后其他国家为了不让待在自己国家的外资跑去美国所以也跟着一起升息，“升息潮流”会不会在明年实现呢？这些就让时间为我们证明吧。另外在这里介绍 Favco 的功课：

（温馨提示：用chrome的朋友可以在本图按右键然后再按“Open image in new tab"，这样会比较清楚） 

Company Overview

·         The principal activities of FFB's subsidiaries are designing, manufacturing, supply, servicing, trading and renting of cranes.

·         Four main cranes - Tower cranes, Offshore cranes, Crawler cranes and Wharf cranes.

·         Company website: http://www.favellefavco.com/

Personal Comment

·         EPS recorded CAGR of 25.32% from year 2010 to 2014.

·         From law of 72, 25.32% return may double our capital in 2.8 years. High growth rate of return is one of reason Favco's PE low as 6 currently.

·         Favco's total liabilities actually mainly build up by trade payable and this trade payable is going seriously by yearly. This may one of the weaknesses Favco.

·         High payable and net negative trade may show Favco is unable to pay off their creditor.

·         Favco's effort on clearing its short term borrowing can detect clearly from year 2010 to 2014. It is diminishing and going zero in last year.

·         ROE is striking through the years too; it is recorded 19% last year. It is pass my ROE target on criteria to choose firm.

·         Investment Master, Cold Eye always suggests his follower to deal the company's share during its PE is under 10 and Favco's PE is under 10 every year.

·         Free cash flow of Favco is attractive as it is growing every year, it is recorded CAGR of 44.36% within latest four years.

·         As current market trend is bottom tide of international oil price, it may affect Favco's business activity but I think it may a tiny effect to Favco's business is diversified by heavy lifting in construction area.

·         Favco also able bring us least 4% of return which derived from DY 4%. From view on EPS, Favco is categorized as growing stock.

Additional Information

·         Latest Q3''2015 report mention Favco has outstanding order book of RM 776 million as at 18/11/2015.

·         Order book mainly builds by global oil and gas, shipyard, construction and wind turbine industries.

·         Revenue of Favco divided into Inside Malaysia and Outside Malaysia (reports no mention detail revenue of outside malaysia), both segment of revenue is approximately balance.

·         Outside Malaysia include Singapore, United State, Australia, Denmark and China. China is the new market explored by Favco currently.

·         Listed public company Muhibbah Engineering (M) Bhd (5703) is holding 60% of shareholding. Favco is one of the subsidiaries of Muhibbah Engineering.

·         Price Target of investment firm:

1. RHB-OSK - RM 2.84 (update 25/8/2015)

2. MIDF - RM 3.30 (update 4/8/2015)

·         Chart showing the data from year 2011 to 2014 and include the latest Q3''2015.

·         Revenue is hiking from 385 million to 798 million and there is uptrend.

·         Revenue and profit look forward to break new high again in annual report 2015.

·         Dividend payout exceeds 50% in year 2014 and achieves 8.73% DY last year.

·         Profit margin also maintained around 10%.

本文只供参考。共勉之。

WTI Crude Oil Price VS KLSE Index

            First chart is WTI crude oil price while the next chart is index of Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE). By comparing both charts, we can evidently conclude that the WTI Crude Oil Price is direct linked to KLSE. When the WTI Crude Oil Price is going bearish, KLSE index will has a same moving with it too. I think this is because the core income of Malaysia is totally depending on the Petroleum. When international oil under over supply condition, oil price will going down and lastly affect the Petroleum Malaysia badly.

The detail of circle indicator as shown below:

i.              Dark Blue (1996) Asian financial crisis

ii.            Yellow (1998) Russian financial crisis

iii.           Green (2000) Dot-com bubble

iv.           Red (2002) Argentine economic crisis

v.            Light Blue (2008) Global financial crisis

vi.           Brown (2009) European sovereign debt crisis

vii.          Grey (2014) Russian financial crisis

viii.        Blue (14/12/2015) ???

Total consists of 8 indicators included 4 HEAD indicators and 4 TAIL indicators. HEAD is the top part of graph or BULL DIE while TAIL is the bottom part of graph or BEAR DIE. When bull going back home, the bear will replace its place to control the market and make it crash. A vice versa theory applied when bear going back home and replaced by bull.

By observe cautiously, we can realize that there are 3 trends from year 1995 to 2009. Trend 1 is from year 1996 to 1998; Trend 2 is from year 2000 to 2002; Trend 3 is from year 2008 to 2009. The entire trend is bearish trend which from the top part drop to the lower part.

On the other hand, the duration of Trend 1 is 3 years; Trend 2 is 3 years and lastly Trend 3 is 2 years. Hereby, we may conclude that the average bearish trend is 2.67 years. These 2.67 years may as the best chance and gold opportunity for intelligence investor to buy undervalue company in the stock market.

After we estimated the 2.67 years as the period of bearish trend, we should apply it to current market. As both charts above, the HEAD indicator recently is year 2014, so we will estimate the BOTTOM indicator at year August 2016. Is it the August 2016 is the end of bear? It may not; this is because the WTI price is showing a clearly shooting bottom trend while the Malaysia stocks market just a small adjustment.

Here one more question again, is it the current downtrend supported by the 20 million ValueCap? Who know it? Every professional speculator is trying to forecast the next year market trend but Mr. Market is not easier to be understood and even guess.

I as the investor is lacking of skill who speculator to forecast and guess the moving of market trend; I also can’t be hedger to limit my lose and maximize my profit due to insufficient fund so the one I can do is closing my ear and eyes to eliminate the news from internet and then observe plus wait patiently for the recovering of trend. 

本文只供参考。共勉之。

7089 Liihen

Company Review

• Main business is furniture product, other business included property rental and plantation.
• Company website: http://www.liihenfurniture.com/index.php 

Personal Comment

• Profit margin of Liihen is increasing through the year.
• Latest Q3''2-15 quarter report show there are trade positive between receivable and payable. This may a good image to show their effort to pay off their creditor.
• Liihen is holding RM 0.56 cash per shares and RM 0.17 borrowing per shares. Net cash positive show company is healthy cash flow condition.
• Q3''2015 which consists of 9 months report get marvelous result with ROE 17.89%. This result reveals the management using the fund effectively and efficiencly.
• Historical DY recorded result above 6%; Liihen is a good investment with extra capital gain if compared with REITs.
• Liihen's business will enhanced and grow at powerful USD dollar. This statement can found from report:" The positive market sentiment in US and the strengthening of USD dollar against RM will continue to enhance the Group’s operation and earnings."

• From the USD/MYR graph, we can clearly see there are present of bullish trend along the year 2015.
• Lowest and highest USD/MYR is 3.4622 and 4.4580 respectively. There is a gap of USD/MYR 1.0000 or increase of 28.76% due to strengthening US dollar against RM malaysia.
• The most interesting case is the price of Liihen rise from RM 2.75 to RM 7.05 with period 10 months; this is the period of powerful US dollar too.
• On the other hand, capex of Liihen normally maintained approximately RM 10 million so result attractive free cash flow and lastly the DCF model get intrinsic value of Liihen worth RM 6.04.
• For the accounting based earning valuation model which seek shareholder equity as heart and get intrinsic value of Liihen worth RM 3.56.
• With the concept of market value, the next resistance of Liihen may RM 2.77 which will amount to RM 500 million market capitalization.

Additional Information

• Liihen mentioned company has a moderate seasonality which sales generally lower in the head of the year due to festival period as well as summer holiday.
• 6 countries direct related to Liihen business, which are America, Asia, Malaysia, Africa, Australia and Europe.
• Clearing and stacking work were completed in end of Feb 2015 and then 750 acres were planted.
• Liihen plan to diversify its business by enter plantation industry but news recently showed the application of RM 22.5 million term loan to Malaysian Timber Industry Board was cancelled.
• Latest Q3''2015 report show the sales segment as below:

• The executive chairman, Mr.Chua Lee Seng's active disposed of share in year 2015. http://www.klse.my/stock/insider/director/all/7089.jsp#stockDetailDiv
• From the Edge Financial Daily, Liihen appears to have expansion plans as RM5 million has been allocated for the purchase of a factory building.

本文只供参考。共勉之。

5071 Coastal 盈高利低

Coastal在这个月25号宣布它第三季的成绩，我已经把重点举例在下面：

1.    公司的Revenue上升了296%，主因是卖了第一台抬高钻机。

2.    Net profit 跌了56%，主因是所卖物品的价值跌了不少。

3.    Revenue升；Profit跌的主要是Cost of sales and services（营业成本）提高了不少。

4.    在去年同期Q3’’2014，cost of sales 占revenue 77%；这一季的cost of sales就占了revenue 101%。

5.    这一季的profit主要来源是“Other income”。

6.    NTA上升了24%。

7.    公司打算实行15%的ESOS(Employees' Share Option Scheme)*。

8.    公司的PPE(Property, plant and equipment)上升346%至RM852 million。**

9.    Cash上升了60%至RM750 million或cash per share RM1.41。**

10.  Currency translation reserve上升了226%至RM364 million。**

11.  公司的Short Term Borrowing增加不少，从RM95 million飞去437 million.**

12.  Long Term Borrowing也是如此，从RM3 million跳去RM420 million。

13.  公司最新的Net Net是 RM1.73。

14.  公司这三季的FCF(Free cash flow)是RM313 million，看起来公司用多数的现金来买PPE了。

15.  公司的生意是跟国际油价离不开关系。

16.  在坎坷的油价还没恢复之前，公司会把主要生意放在钻井领域。

17.  在今年九月，公司的order book 是RM2.9 billion，公司的船只生意占 RM1.3 billion，剩余的RM1.6 billion是一门制造气体压缩器给墨西哥公司的生意。另外FY2016的业绩就看这门生意的表现了。

*以15%的ESOS计划，EPS会被冲淡，然后PE会上升，对小股东们不是一个好的结果。

**数据是比较这一季的九月和去年的十二月。

以下链接是之前对这间公司的分享：

1. 5071 Coastal

本文只供参考。共勉之。

5197 FLBHD 双喜临门

第一喜：股息

FLBHD这次又给股息了，而且还很大方给了10仙。以现在的价位 RM 2.45，股息总共15仙，那么周息率 (D/Y) 就是 6.12%了，比银行的定期存款的利息高很多，而且还可以跟主攻派股息的 REIT 媲美。想要享受目前10仙股息的朋友可以选择在12月3号之前买入股份，记得在当天3号买的话就没10仙股息拿了，毕竟12月3号是ex-date。

第二喜：业绩

这次的业绩也很好，综合上来的话：
1. Revenue 上升了26.15%。
2. EPS 上升191.28%。
3. 这一季 Profit margin 是 22.55%，Q3''2014是 9.61%。
4. 这一季的net gain of foreign exchange 总共有4百万，总计今年的三季是7百万，看起来美金的强势帮助了不少。
5. 季报说美金兑换马币总共上升了17.4%，很难想象美国耶伦姐升息后美金带给马币的冲击。
6. 季报提到的“Board remains confident with the prospect for the remaining period of the year.”，看起来董事对明年的业绩也有信心。
7. 公司目前累计了 RM 0.83 的cash per share。
8. 公司目前还是零债务（zero borrowing)。

以下链接是之前对这间公司的分享：
1. 5197 FLBHD
2. 5197 FLBHD 非常亮丽的Q2



本文只供参考。共勉之。

功课的力量

前几天股市一片“晴”天后，今天就来个 SHOW TIME 让你脸青青。今天一共跌了20.79点，整整跌了1.23%，看来昨天的 DEEPAVALI 惹来了不少熊。另外前几天收到消息 FED 会在今年尾升息，也就是下个月罢了，大马股市会不会再历史重演去年年尾的悲剧呢？去年是因为油产量过剩而导致油价飙跌，然后今年算是在调整期，那么明年会怎样呢？？？不吹牛了，切入正题吧，以下是我在今年分析+分享的功课。总共有两个图，第一个是今年所分享的公司，而第二个图是我在今年年头分享的个人TOP 5（个人 TOP 5 股票/公司）。另外本人算的 Return % 不包括水钱哦，因为每间投资银行的水钱都不一样所以就直接忽略掉它了。

功课总共有14个，positive return 的有11个，negative return 的有3个。Total return 是 274%，然后 Average return 是 20%，也就是平均每只股票都赚 20%。另外 Return 最高的是 FLBHD，接下来亚军是 MAGNI，最后季军是 VS。这三间公司都有个共同点，那就是 EXPORT 公司。这样看来今年的主题还真是 EXPORT 了。另外这里有个重点要告诉大家了，那就是FEB的升息是 EXPORT 公司利润的催化剂因为随着美金兑换马币不断地提升，本地出口去国外的产品会因便宜而间接提升公司的 Revenue 和 Net profit。

接下来是本人今年年头三月分享的5间个人觉得有潜质的公司。在短短8个月里，这个投资组合一共带来了 257% 的 Return 和 51% 的 Average return。而且当中全部都是 positive return，看起来这8个月内没投资失误了。这组合的冠军是 SUPERLN，接下来亚军是 FLBHD，最后的季军是 RUBEREX。当时因为看到今年的趋势是在出口，所以就投资了以上公司，另外靠了一点点幸运。那就是 FED 一直在拖延升息活动，所以才让很多媒体在这期间一直不断宣传说“升息有利出口”。最后个人觉得亲自下手做功课的力量真的非常有效率。一来让你不会买错股票或公司，二来可以安心睡早、午、晚觉，三来可以坐、躺、站着收钱，哈哈哈。。。最后一句是开玩笑的。。。完



本文只供参考。共勉之。

5071 Coastal

11月刚刚来临了，2015年就快过了，这时有1年以上经验的投资者应该都知道“粉刷活动“也要来临了。何谓”粉刷活动“呢？那就是本地基金的经理都为了他们手上所管理的投资组合不被影响，然后就静观其股，在旁边默默地等过2015年，这样投资组合的利润率就不会有很大的变化了。最后他们就从投资组合的总利润抽取几巴仙的佣金了，也就是乖乖收钱。另外离题一下，我个人觉得家私股在短期的两/三个月可能会上升些许。这是因为个人觉得在这两/三个月是马来西亚的雨季，所以和家私股会有些许挂上钩，上升的幅度就要看看媒体们的力量了。最后来看看和研究以下的公司：

Company review             

o   Two main businesses: 

                               I.            Vessels manufacturing and repairing services - Revenue rise 15% compared with year 2013.         

                            II.            Vessels chartering and equipment hire - Revenue drop 80% compared with year 2013.      

o   Offshore support vessel (OSV).

                       

Additional Information 

o   In FY2014, 12 units of OSV delivered by Coastal and addition to 7 units lower-premium tugboat and barges.           

o   Total value of vessels cost RM 872 million.  

o   Feb 2015, Coastal secured shipbuilding order book to RM 1.5 billion and this is slated for delivery period of two years until 2017. 

o   Group also successfully secured a RM1.24 billion contract for the fabrication (制造).        

o   RM 800 million sales contracts are secured in April 2015.    

o   2nd Jackup Rig (JU rig) is going to complete in Q4''2015.   

o   Total order book is amounted to RM 3.6 billion and able to sustain revenue over 2 years.  

o   Business expanded to Mexico and South America.  

o   Q3''2015 mentioned look forward on the oil and gas asset named JUGCSU (Jack-up Gas Compression Service Unit)and Coastal Driller 1.

     

o   From chart above, we can make following comment:           

o   Coastal target foreign customers       

o   Coastal switch its main PPE from Malaysia to China.          

o   British Virgin Island and Singapore are new market entered through investment on new subsidiaries.      

o   Giving up Saudi Arabia' market.       

o   Main customer is Nigeria and then followed by Egypt and British Virgin Islands. 

o   4 new markets are entered.    

o   Target price of investment firm:        

Ø  KENANGA - RM 2.12         

Ø  RHB-OSK - RM 2.22

Ø  ALLIANCE - RM 1.70         

           

Personal Comment

o   Dividend payout maintained around 20% of net profit.       

o   Total PPE increased 172%, all of this contributed by Office equipment and Construction work in progress.           

o   Nigeria's vessel market for Coastal is attractive because Nigeria is the 12th largest producer of petroleum in the world and the 8th largest exporter.          

o   New business opportunity JUGCSU and Coastal Driller 1 may check in Q3''2015 which announced around 21 Nov 2015. 

o   From the various intrinsic value models, my target price to Coastal is RM3.70.      

o   Latest net net of Coastal is RM 2.60.            

o   Since 2014, there are large investment fund pumping to expand its business.          

o   Free cash flow of Coastal consider as healthy as its amount is near the net profit earned.   

o   From year 2011 to 2014, CAGR of cash result approximately 33%. It mean its cash grow up rate per year has average of 33% annually.       

o   With trailing PE, the PE of Coastal is 5.58 and its history DY is touched 3% every year.  

o   ROE is decreasing each of the year, this is mainly attributed by the equity's grow rate is faster than the net profit. 

o   EPF is one of the shareholder and holding near 5% of total shareholding.  

o   Trade payable is the main risk of Coastal because deficit trade may result the company unaffordable on the credit sales.    

o   Coastal holding cash value RM 0.92 per share so risk of credit on it is "small case".

o   Trend of crude oil will reflect on the stock price of Coastal. As the oil price drop sharply for the period July 2014 to Jan 2015, the price of Coastal also fall sharply from RM 5.11 to lowest RM 2.27 during this period.

本文只供参考。共勉之。