油棕の功课 Palm Oil's homework (二)

This second article of palm oil is discussing its data since year 2011 to 2015. Data included Export of Palm Oil, Country which imported Malaysia’s Palm Oil and CPO (Crude Palm Oil) price. So data is divided into three main parts, and then each of the part will consists of data which compare year 2014 and 2015. I also explaining the important point of each data only, the simple is the best. Hope everyone is understood the flow of the data because it will be easier to match understanding on my data.

Part I Export of Palm Oil

As table below above, data shows:

·         Declining trend

·         Head part of the year is low export.

·         Tail part of the year is high export.

·         Year 2013 is the highest export.

·         Uptrend since year 2008 to 2011 (MPOC website latest data started from year 2008).

·         October always the highest export.

·         February always the lowest export.

 As table below above, data shows:

·         Feb is the worst month.

·         Export uptrend continuously since May.

Part II Country which imported Malaysia’s Palm Oil

As table below above, data shows:

·         No stable trend on the total export to top seven countries.

·         EU (European Union) always uptrends.

·         Import palm oil of China decreased approximately 29% from 2011 to 2014.

·         Import palm oil of India increased 93% from 2011 to 2014.

·         India is the country most need palm oil, followed by China and EU.

As table below above, data shows:

·         Pakistan and USA decreased their import .

·         Philippines and India increased their import.

·         Total export to top seven countries is increased slightly.

 Part III CPO (Crude Palm Oil) price

As table below above, data shows:

·         Monthly average price of CPO is decreasing since 2011.

·         August 2015 recorded the lowest CPO price since 2011.

·         Head of year is verified high CPO price.

·         Tail of year is noted low CPO price.

·         Theory of low export, high CPO price applied.

·         Downtrend revealed.

As table below above, data shows:

·         Year 2015 is worst year.

·         Feb 2015 to May 2015 reduced extremely when compared with corresponding month.

·         Downtrend for the CPO price

·         Theory of palm oil versus CPO price failed applied on year 2014.

·         CPO price in 2014 lower than 2013 even its export is lower than 2013.

  

Comments:

I am confident for the export of palm oil in future few months for this year. Data shows the tail of year always pass up the attractive result in each year, so the result in this end of year will be get better than last year and come to be the total export being uptrend in this year. Additionally, the point for each of the data above mentioned is useful for us to pick the plantation stock. I personally prefer to buy in month which the CPO price is low because the “Mr. Market” always sensitive to the CPO price. As the low CPO price caused by high export so September and October maybe a good pick.

Here I attached a 20 years CPO price chart. From chart, we can see there are present of identical movement during year 1997 to 1999 and year 2006 to 2008. Both 1997 and 2007 happened Asian Financial Crisis and Global Financial Crisis respectively. Here exist one point again, CPO price going high during financial crisis. By the way, here is the question: “When is the date for financial crisis in future?” Moreover, chart also shows there is downtrend started from year 2010 until today. In the end, when is the rebound of this downtrend? My answer is “maybe soon” but that is impossible for us to forecast its future exactly because we are not the “Mr. Market”. 

本文只供参考。共勉之。

油棕の功课 Palm Oil's homework (一)

在多间上市公司里，相信很多人多很怕接触到跟种植领域（Plantation Sector）有联系到的公司因为大家都觉得现在种植股还没热，同时潮也还没来。这篇文章会关于到我个人对种植股的看法，如有差错请各位大大指点，毕竟有错才会学习，有学习才会进步嘛。另外这篇文章主要是攻油棕领域的，所以一切看法都跟油棕离不了身。

First, we need to discuss about the phase of palm oil because it is very important for us to understand the cycle of palm oil. So, total stages of palm oil are three, that are Cultivating （培育）, Harvesting（收获）and Processing（处理）.

1. Cultivating

This stage is including selection and plantation of seeds. During the progress of selection, there may approximately cut off 7% of failed seeds and after others 93% seeds are being selected successfully and then required 6 months to grow up. From this stage to next stage is required between 3 to 5 years to proceed to next stage.

2. Harvesting

The planted seeds are growing up to palm oil tree and this palm oil will continue to mature. As the palm oil continues to mature, their yield also will increased and those of them generally reach peak production between their 7th to 18th years of growth. Besides that, the palm oil able to produce fruit for harvest within 4 to 6 years of planting. Here present of one term which always used by media on the fruit, that is FFB (Fresh Fruit Bunch).

3. Processing

Here is the stage of farmer maintain the quality of palm oil, there are consist a lot of strategies and I think this is not related with the trend of palm oil discussed so I am just skip it.

Ok, here the summary of above three stages. Company required to use 3 to 5 years to enable the palm oil planted is going to the harvest stage. Harvest stage of company will boost the sales and net profit, so we need to know the date of initial stages to estimate probably on the harvest stage.

Besides that, we also need to understand two key point, that is raining season would make fresh fruit's yield going faster in harvest stage while hot season is suitable for growing stage of palm oil. So, normally end of the year will be the raining season (this is the reason flood always happened in end of the year) and this will boost the sales for quarterly report in October to December.

Furthermore, do you know any product which made by the palm oil? The picture above will show you the way. All of the product can find easily in the supermarket and it is play an important role in our daily life. On the other hand, our country Malaysia is ranking number two for the palm oil plantation country. So actually the public listed plantation company may take few advantages in Malaysia because all of the export of palm oil to other country is depending to all of this public listed company. In my opinion, I am suggesting invest the plantation company which high market capitalization because they are linked close relationship with government and plays leader role in plantation sector. Example of plantation blue chip companies are IOICORP and KLK, both of this company valued approximate RM 25 billion.

So, this article is about what I am understood about the fundamental of palm oil. In future, I will keep updating this article every moment that I know the new knowledge about palm oil. Thanks for read ya ^_^ 

PS: Next article will discussing the data statistic of palm oil.

待续。。。《油棕の功课 Palm Oil's homework (二)》

《9次面试后的经验》

经过两个月的“面试”考验，个人觉得应该分享一些面试心得，以让一些刚毕业的 Fresher 少撞点板。说真的，我差不多是一星期面试一次，多数都是早上坐八点半的巴士去吉隆坡然后再搭晚上7点的巴士回来，待在吉隆坡的时间都差不多贡献了12个小时。不多说了，直接切入主题！

首先先介绍找工作的网站，那就是 Jobstreet，相信大家对这个网站也非常得熟悉，毕竟在马来西亚是出了名。找工作的时候最好找一个字，那就是“Fresh graduate is encouraged to apply”，我找工作的时候最喜欢看到这个字眼了。另外 Jobstreet 也有上市哦，公司代码是 0058 JOBST。在我印象中，这间公司在不久前派了很丰厚的股息然后就实行了 Reverse stock split，这个词大家可能比较少见，因为公司把股份变小然后股价同时变高了。这里的股价是变高，不是被推高，双方差距很大的。又离题了，拉回我的真身先，哈哈。

在面试前，大家一定要做一些功课，以让他们知道你是有备而来，要准备的功课是：

1. Briefly describe yourself.
2. What is your career goal?
3. What is your strength?
4. What is your weakness?
5. Are you understand the job scope of respective position?
6. Why you want join us?
7. Did you know any information about our company?
8. Any question you want to ask us?

以上是 Interviewer 多数会问你的题目，你只要上网站打下 Google，再打下的题目，基本上就没问题了。功课真的很重要，我个人觉得我第9次面试成功主要是因为我有上网查+被他们的公司背景。

另外因为我们是刚毕业的学生，所以HR基本上不会问高难度的问题了，除非他/她不知道你刚毕业。对于一个 Fresher 来讲，个人觉得一定要让坐在你对面的人知道你是一个非常愿意学习的人，毕竟我们刚毕业是属于零经验或工作菜鸟。另外，也要让坐在你对面的人知道你对这份工作非常有兴趣，而且抱着热诚来面试的。

除此之外，个人觉得 Intern 时的工作岗位和经验是非常得重要。有些公司是看你 Intern时候的 Job scope 来决定要不要聘请你。就像我在 Tokio Marine 面试的例子，他们找我去面试主要是因为我实习的时候主要是用账务软件来做账的，而刚好他们公司新的 project 需要一些了解电脑软件。

去面试之前一定要准备充足，不要让你的 Interviewer 等你回答他们的题目。然后回答他们题目的时候一定要看着他们的眼睛或跟他们有眼神交流，以让他们知道你不是在背书给他们听。另外，我个人比较 prefer 多位 Interviewer，因为这样面试的场合不会那么尴尬，毕竟人多了，问的问题也多了，然后你的表现才可以更突出。

说真的，我现在才体验到读的科系不一定跟你做工的岗位 Match 到。其实当中的主因是因为在学校里教的东西跟学校外做的东西几乎是不一样的。有时自己最不想要，往往命中注定是你的；我就是一个很好的例子了。我其实本性是不喜欢 Account 的因为我喜欢看账多过做账，不过还是躲不过这个命运，以前实习时做账；现在做工的岗位是做账。有时我都在想是不是我的不喜欢吸引力法则太强了。。。这样我是不是应该想着不喜欢钱呢？哈哈哈。

最后祝各位 Fresher 早日找到自己钟意的工作岗位。共勉之。

《毕业后的找工历险记》

在本年六月，我正式毕业了（当时只是考完大学最后一张PAPER），然后就拿着不是优等；同时也不是很差的成绩去闯新加坡。当时在JOBSTREET和JOBSDB的网站寻找我理想的工作，但是后果非常不好因为都完全没有回复，有回复的都是Financial Consultant（保险工作）。

就这样过了两个月，我感觉在浪费时间然后就在七月尾也正是放弃新加坡或2.8的工作。这时就开始在另一站寻找工作——吉隆坡（KL）。

面试

1. Public Bank - Management Trainee

2. HSBC Electronic Data Processing - Global Banking and Market Associate

3. Citigroup Transaction Service - Fraud Analyst

4. UOB Malaysia - Collection Officer
5. Orix Leasing Malaysia Sdn Bhd - Credit & Marketing Officer
6. iPay88 Sdn Bhd - Risk Assessment Executive
7. Tokio Marine Life Insurance Sdn Bhd - Management Trainee
8. SS & C Technology Sdn Bhd - Fund Accountant
9. Air Product Shared Service Sdn Bhd - Account Receivable Representative

面试详情

1. 到了目的地后，在BODY GUARD那里register（他们只允许你在半小时前的预定面试时间register）。到了楼上后就提交你的CV然后他们会给你一张form给你填，然后就在休息室里面等待他们的通知。面试的过程里会有三个人，没有错，这三个人不包括你。他们三个其中一个是负责做笔录，而另外两个就是负责跟你面试。最后个人体验是他们会一直HARD SELL他们的front line position，简单来说是做sales的工作。

2. HSBC的面试过程比较挑战性，因为总共有四个过程。你真的没看错，是四个！首先是电话面试（主要问你的背景），然后是ENGLISH TEST（总共有三项: Grammar, Vocabulary and Listening，这个TEST一旦失败就要打包回家了），接下来是HR Interview（普通HR职员跟你Interview），最后一关是HR Manager Interview（这关我就没有经过了，因为当时HR跟我讲Manager不在公司里）。另外补充我面试的时间安排在下午四点。

3. 地点在AIA Capsquare。说真的这个地点有点难找因为你可能会看错建筑物。另外在柜台register后“排队”进电梯，你也没看错，这栋大厦的职员是排队进电梯的。我在这里的面试整体表现不是很好，主要是还没完全了解Fraud Analyst这个职位，同时我的interviewer也非常不好对付。

4. 这次的面试比较特别因为需要在20分钟里面写一篇少过250字的作文（题目4选1）。这个作文没有立即给你知道结果然后就有个高层来跟你面试了。面试过程是题目、回答+经验。题目是你提出，而回答+经验是那位高级职业了。这次的面试主要是让你更了解工作的范围和环境所以都不会问你一些平常面试该问的问题了。

5. 地点在Monorail站附近，一下站就看到那栋建筑物了，而且走不到1分钟的路程就到了。老样子前1小时到目的地然后在那等半小时后才去登记面试。跟高层面试前，需要填一些个人资料、financial ratio test 和 写一篇英文作文。我搞掂这三样东西后就交给counter的那位小姐，再过大约15分钟后，和三位高层的面试就这样开始了。是的，这次是三位高层，加上我总共有四个人在会议房里面。三位高层都很非常好人，而且过程都有说有笑，整个面试的过程不会有紧张感。面试结束后，有位男高层在我进电梯的时候搭了我肩膀轻轻地说:" Bye, see you again."。希望那句 See you again 可以达成 ^_^

6. 这次的面试一进去就看到整个office 的人在做工了。面试一开始的时候就吓到我了，因为那位HR 跟我讲这个职位跟我读的东西完全没有关系，然后就问我为什么会选这个职位呢？（我一开始看到工作岗位的名字就以为是属于金融部门，哪知道是属于电脑部门）这时没办法了，就只好硬着头皮说之前拿了一个科系叫 Electronic Business 然后就慢慢爱上了这一行。整个面试过程是在车大炮我对这行有兴趣了，幸好面试有些许经验了所以大致上都可以答到她的问题，不过我也觉得她发现我对这个工作岗位没兴趣吧。

7. 这次的面试被安排在早上11点面试，不过我老规矩提前半小时进去了，然后至到1点才结束。整个过程耗费了2个小时半，也就是1个小时 personality test 和 IQ Test、1个小时 HR Interview 和最后半小时 Manager Interview。因为 IQ Test 的原因，我面试完后，感觉脑细胞死了不少。IQ Test 对了超过一半，对此本人蛮满意下，呵呵。这次的工作岗位主要是补助 Finance 部门因为他们公司有新的project，所以很需要人手。整个面试过程的 HR Staff 和 Manager 都非常友善。

8. 这次的面试花了我两次Taxi钱因为公司地点是在 Midvalley 附近不过那里附近都没 LRT 的所以只好搭 Taxi 去面试了。面试前会填一些个人资料和回答一个题目，那就是 What is your future five years goal？另外总共有三位高层负责跟你面试。虽然有三位不过只有一位在讲话，另外两位都只看着我们两个。这一项面试有点吸引我，因为跟我读的科系息息相关而且面试的过程也主要看我对投资的兴趣。 面试完后就搭那个红红色的走表车回去 Midvalley了，我在里头逛了一个小时后就去巴士站等巴士回家乡了。另外有补充，个人很讨厌搭吉隆坡的 KTM，因为非常非常慢。

9. 这次的面试没花到钱因为是朋友载送载回，非常感谢他这几天的帮助。面试地点是一个有六栋大夏的地方，而其中一栋是我面试的地方，另外其中一栋是我一位朋友的工作地方。这次的面试有两位高层，两位都非常友善，因为都没问我一些面试该问的问题，都只是在聊天和了解我。另外这个位置只需要一人，我当时听到就直接 CHUA 到。整个面试的过程耗了大概40分钟。过了五小时后就打电话通知我拿到了 Offer 了！！YES！！感恩！！

结果

1. 失败

2. 失败

3. 失败

4. 失败
5. 失败
6. 失败
7. 失败
8. 失败
9. 成功

待续。。。《9次面试后的经验》

3107 Fimacor

最近马来西亚的股市还是不稳定，连续上了几天后就在半路被阻止了。今天的指数也再次跌破1600的信心指数，来回不到一个月的时间。下一个支撑点是在1531，再跌破这个点就真的不知道发生什么事了，有可能是反弹，也有可能一路向南走了，毕竟这位“市场小姐”的情绪很不稳定。在这个小熊市的时候，指数的 Put Warrant 和 Call Warrant 也变了uncle aunt 的话题了。不过我今天留意到一点，那就是虽然指数是跌的不过指数的 Put Warrant 和 Call Warrant 都反道而行，不知明天会不会顺 Call Warrant 的意然后反弹一天呢？另外在这熊市里也做了一些功课，让自己的脑清醒了一点。接下来是介绍功课了：

Company review

• Month March to June is the Q1 report of company.
• Core business is Printing and Trading of Security and Confidential Documents.
• Secondary business is Oil Palm Plantation, located in Indonesia, PT Nunukan Jaya Lestari.
• Third business is Property which is Plaza Damansara Buiding.
• Kumpulan Fima, KFIMA (6491) is mother share of Fimacor due to indiect 60% shareholding by Fima Metal Box.

Personal Comment

• Challenges faced Fimacor are weak Malaysia Ringgit and CPO commodity prices.
• Security and confidential documents business should be stable for Fimacor, so the one thing to be worried is the oil palm plantation.
• Biological assets amounted to RM 44,877,000 in AR2015. It is increased to RM 45,212,000 in latest Q1''2016.
• Profit before tax margin of confidential document, oil palm and property business is estimated approximately 16%, 29% and 20% respectively.
• Fimacor is a pure zero borrowing company.
• Latest cash per share is RM 0.66 and this is net cash per share of company is RM 0.64.
• With criteria NTA 2.35, Fimacor is undervalued by RM 0.12 or 5%.
• ROE is maintained above 10% level.
• DY of Fimacor also maintained above 5%, dividend investor's favorite.
• Fimacor's volume transaction in stock market is low. 

Additional Information

• End of year 2014, Fimacor acquired Gabungan Warisan Sdn Bhd and Next Oasis Sdn Bhd. This acquisition activity aim to expand company's plantation land bank.
• Plantation expected maintains high fresh fruit bunches production in coming year.

• Compared with revenue in 2014, Security and confidential documents, Plantation and Property business recorded 10%, 4% and 1.5% in growth rate respectively.
• First time Fimacor buy back its shares after year 2009. Buy back activity on 17th and 18th August at price 2.2 and 2.22 respectively.
• Latest treasury shares of Fimacor are 3,935,100.
• For revenue part, there are 72% located in Malaysia and others 28% are located in Indonesia.
• The land area for oil palm plantaion in Indonesia is 46,642.90 acre. Its net book value worth RM 29,985,856. So NBV per acre is RM 642.88.
• On the other hand, the land's revenue per acre is RM 2269.24. It is 3.5x of the NBV per acre.

• This is palm oil statistics in year 2014, derived from http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=palm-oil&graph=production
• Fimacor's plantation division located at Indonesia. It may competitively but few advantages will take by company.

• Average Palm Oil price is REM 2203 per MT.
• A 7.5 sen or RM 0.075 final dividend going ex-date on 22/9/2015.

Question

1. Reason long term borrowing digit in AR2015?

Answer

1. Is is belong to two new acquired subsidiaries, that is Gabungan Warisan and Next Oasis.

本文只供参考。共勉之。

5197 FLBHD 非常亮丽的Q2

今天 FLBHD 叫出了非常亮丽的Q2，在这里做个简单的分析。

Q2''2014和Q2''2015的比较：

1. 营业额（Revenue）上升了34%
2. 净盈利（Net profit）上升了126%
3. 每股净资产（NTA）上升了10%

其他补充：

1. FLBHD的每股现金（Cash per share）价值 RM 0.82。
2. 个人觉得FLBHD的支撑位是在MA200的线
3. 这一季的亮丽成绩主因是加上了上一季Q1被延迟到达美国的船只
4. 从去年六月至今年六月，美金上升了大概13%，有利于FLBHD
5. 今年有望破10仙的股息，以今年8月给的5仙股息，再加上以往年尾给的8仙股息，预计总共有13仙的股息。在现在1.51的价位，13仙的股息是达到8.7%的股息率（DY）。

最后恭喜小股东们 ^_^


本文只供参考。共勉之。

BUY RATE

Buy Rate，被简单翻译的话就是买入率，相信大家了解字面上的意思。当天每项交易都可以影响 Buy Rate 的因为只要有人买，它就会上；反之有人卖，它就会跌。以通常的情况来说的话，一只股的 Buy Rate 一天比一天高的话，这样可以知道有庄家/有心人在吃票了。吃票的原因有几个，可以是内幕有好消息；可以是炒高价（这个可要小心了，一旦被炒高最后放票，遭殃的可是我们散户）。个人建议在低 Buy Rate 的基本面股票买入比较适当，因为当时还没人发现它。接下来以下部分是更详情地介绍 Buy Rate。

以上图被画圈圈的就是今天的主题了，这次的主题也使用 ECS 做例子。需要更清楚看这张图的话只要滑鼠右键然后选择"Open link in new tab"就可以看到清清楚楚了（本人是CHROME使用者^_^）。以本图低 Buy Rate 来分析的话，那可以说这只股票卖的人比买的人多。Buy Rate的算法是当天买股的数量除以总共的交易量。ECS的 Buy Rate 算法就是（61/571）x 100% =10.68%，也就是上图的11%。

接下来要解释怎样买和卖来定论 Buy Rate 了。

买的定论
首先，这里的 Buy Rate 不是说你在上图的1.270排着30 LOTS，然后有人卖10 LOTS 给你，最后 Buy Rate 会上哦，反之 Buy Rate 会跌，因为那时10 LOTS 交易量是因为卖的目的而被交易的。所以以买的定论是你或其他投资者有买的心然后在不用排队下的情况下直接买入当时的股票。例子：上图1.300的价位排着66 LOTS，那么你当时想买20 LOTS ，就 KEY IN 了20 LOTS，同时在不用排队的情况下 Match 了。这样的情况就会提升 Buy Rate 了。简单来说是直接交易就会提升 Buy Rate。


卖的定论
同样道理，卖股的时间会降低 Buy Rate。假设在以上图1.270的价位有30 LOTS，那么你当时想在这个价位直接卖你的股票然后就直接 KEY IN了，同时也在不用排队的情况下 Match了（因为当时有买家在排队卖）。从 Buy Rate 来看，我们同时也可以知道 Sell Rate。也就是简单的100%减掉 Buy Rate的 %。上图的 Sell Rate 是89%。

本文只供参考。共勉之。

触底反弹？还是触底荷兰？

相信有留意股市的朋友们在这几天都有同样的感觉，因为大马的股市一天比一天的差。从上个星期二，悲剧就开始了。股市一直勇往直下，大家的watchlist里面也都红红的，好像新年拜年时到处都看到每间家都被贴到红红的。然后今天写这文章的目的是想看看明天的股市会怎样，到底会不会跌破1600呢？先看看这一星期以来的简单数据：

从上图来看，在一个星期内，股市就跌了113.8点或者6.6%。以正常的情况来看，一旦物价触底就会反弹因为有很多买家发现东西太便宜了然后一直选购，量增加了也同时吸引其他买家选购，最后反弹现象就会出现了。不过重点是大马股市的“物价”需要在什么价位才是最低或最便宜的呢？在一直跌的情况下，明天会不会触底反弹呢？还是触底继续跌破去荷兰呢？一切就看明天了，拭目以待。。。

本文只供参考。共勉之。

比较公司——中药业务

最近还在吹着美金的强势风，这让家私股从年头牛到今天了，例子有HEVEA，HOMERIZ，POHUAT，LIIHEN，EVERGRN等。然后最近的木板股也不服输，一起跟势上游。

美国在今年的升息计划也被联储局主席耶伦（Janet Yellen）comfirm了，美元升息后短期内应该对大马RM有不大的影响，长期来看感觉1美元换4零吉的日子是迟早的，业务出口去美国的公司应该抓几间在手先了，不然会走宝。

当心里有“钟意“的业务但是不知道应该投资哪间公司因为有时同行的公司有太多间了，这时就应该比较同行的公司，看看哪间公司比较值得买进。不多说了，下面例子是比较同行中药业务的公司：

图表里的计算法都是根据2014年，包括股价和股票数量。股价也根据去年12月31号年尾来定因为所有数据都是从2014年报里取出。另外因为BIOHLDG是在今年才上市所有就用它第一天闭市的价格了。做功课的时候发现以上公司的EPS在去年已经下滑了不少，加上今年刚实行的GST，看来中药业的公司短期内很难因基本面反弹了。。。


本文只供参考。共勉之。

6963 VS

今天是马来新年的第三天，祝马来朋友新年快乐和 Selamat Hari Raya。这几天因为对今年暴增的VS Industry 产生兴趣所以对此做了以下功课。VS是间电子业专制造服务（EMS，Electronic Manufacturing Services），EMS就是一个全线的服务，这包括产品开发、产品生产，这当然包括产品的採购、产品的品质管理及运输物流。另外VS的主要客户是Keurig、Dyson和Zodiac，看来公司的未来发展可以被期待了。以下是VS的功课：

Company Overview

·         VS ranked world's top global Electronic Manufacturing Service (EMS) providers for world-reowned office and household appliance manufacturers since year 2007 till today.

·         Dividend is given in every quarter result.

·         Main business activities comprise investment holding and the manufacturing, assembling and sale of electronic and electrical products and plastic moulded components and parts.

Personal Comment

·         VS's capital able to bonus issue for 2 to every 1 ordinary share.

·         Average free cash flow yield is 4% along latest five years is not satisfied but CY in year 2012 to 2014 is attractive.

·         Year 2014 is the year for VS to surge its revenue and net profit. Q3''2015 has a cumulative revenue and profit with growth rate of 141% and 49% respectively.

·         Profit margin of VS is low. Larger revenue but low net profit. So cost of goods sold is important to identify the earning power of VS.

·         Latest borrowing per share is RM 2.05 while cash per share is RM 0.96 so result net debt per share with RM 1.09. Unhealthy cash company.

·         From NTA view, VS is undervaluing seriously in past record but current price surpass over the current NTA.

·         Trailing PE (Taking EPS for latest 12 months in current price) is 8.79. This matches my criteria to pick stock.

·         DY is attractive in last year. It is higher than fixed deposit rate in bank.

·         Accounting based earning valuation model giving intrinsic value with RM 5.21.

·         Discounted cash flow model give intrinsic value with RM 4.98.

·         Few of useful information disclose by VS in Annual Report.

Additional Information

·         Consolidation of China-based company - V.S. International Group Limited (VSIG) is the main reason of excellent revenue in year 2014.

·         VS expand scope of services in Indonesian operation by adding plastic injection capabilities.

·         Latest treasury shares are 1,149,336.

·         Proposed every 1 shares split to 5 shares with announcement on 14/7/2015 and specific Proposals expected completed by Q3''2015 or made within one month.

 

·         Picture above clearly bring us the image of high increase earning power on U.S, Europe and China but AR2014 don't show the PBT in US and Europe.

·         Even VS get high revenue in every quarter but business activity in Indonesia and China still not stable due to negative PBT sometimes will obtained in quarter result.

·         Non-current asset just present in three countries, there are China (49%), Malaysia (41%) and Indonesia (9%). Left 1% is other category.

·         Revenue based on category of business activities segment is not provided in Annual Report.

·         VS focus their market on Malaysia, Indonesia and China.

·         Operation in Indonesia moved to new factory in May 2015.

·         Top two substantial shareholders who are Executive Chairman and Executive Director are disposing many shares in year 2015.

·         Lot of local and foreign fund listed in top 30 list shareholders.

·         Koon Yew Yin's sharing about VS -  LINK

·         RHB-OSK target price with RM 4.50 at 2/4/2015 - LINK

·         VS expand its business opportunity on coffee industry.

·         Surprising result of PBT in every quarter of year 2015.

·         All the quarter result in year 2015 explained mainly attributable to higher sales and better sales mix contributed by the Malaysian operations.

Questions

1.    Reason of financing cash flow reflect positive since year 2013.

2.    Is it VS proceed large amount of loan aimed to pay off the dividend to its shareholder.

3.    Price of VS after split activity.

4.    Financial ratio that will affected after split activity.

Answers

1.    Year 2013 is mainly due to long term borrowing with amount RM 40 million while 2014 is due to short term borrowing with large amount RM 62 million.

2.    No. Dividend last year accounted to RM 9 million, it just around 2% of total borrowing. So loan is mainly for expansion of business.

3.    Current price will expect become RM 1.05.

4.    EPS, NTA, PE, DY and CY will be affected.


本文只供参考。共勉之。

9571 MITRA

今天大马股市最终成绩是上升了4.99点或者0.29%，同时今天也是四月后外资首次净买的日子。这些资料都来自資匯 The busy weekly。然后这星期四股市休息半天，也就是午市没戏了；同时被称呼黑色的星期五也休息一天。不说股市了，接下来说功课了。这次的功课稍微有点更改，也就是不是根据ANALYSIS来分类功课了，这次换成个人意见和额外资料了。同时在最后加上了Question and Answer (Q&A)。希望这样看起来比较简单也比较容易明白。功课如下：

Company Overview

·         Four main business operated by MITRA, that are Construction, Property Development, Healthcare and Quarry Operations.

·         In Malaysia, the Group is principally involved in the civil engineering, building and road construction works and property development.

·         In South Africa, the Group is principally involved in civil engineering, construction works, property development and golf management. Its revenue seizes 4.3% of total revenue in 2014.

Personal Comment

·         Accounting based earning valuation model giving intrinsic value on MITRA with RM2.29.

·         DCF Model giving intrinsic value with RM2.95.

·         Gross profit margin maintained at good % with 20+.

·         ROE is uptrend from year 2012 to 2014. It achieves 13.61% in 2014.

·         Profit margin is uptrend condition too from year 2012 to 2014. Last profit margin is 10.34%.

·         At current price, PE is 12.68 and need achieve growth rate with 32.7% on EPS to make PE 10.

·         Latest borrowing of Q1''2015 is RM 0.35 per share while cash per share is RM 0.02. So result net debt of RM 0.33 per share. Net debt may show company unhealthy in cash.

·         Average free cash flow yield, CY is 4%; it just hit my minimum criteria on CY.

·         DY may higher than the yield by putting fixed deposit in bank. It hit 5% last year.

·         MITRA target its revenue RM 1 billion in year 2015. This is 100% of growth rate in revenue (Not fully trust on it)

·         Rocket trend in trade receivable by RM 60 million or 49%. But just RM 6 million or 5.43% increase in trade payable.

·         MITRA maybe give up the quarry division due to its revenue decreasing and its finished good inventory is zero during year 2014.

·         MITRA is giving up its Healthcare division by announcement on 15/4/2015 that intention to dispose all its 51% shareholding in Optimax Eye Specialist Centre Sdn Bhd.

·         MITRA’s ROE currently is 7^th highest in Construction Sector.

·         MITRA’s price CAGR along year 2010 till today recorded 7.57%.

·         MITRA going get away from Healthcare and Quarry division, both these combined contributed 5.45% of total revenue last year. It just small part to MITRA.

Additional Information

·         Latest treasury shares amounted to 2,357,446.

·         Form 28A and 28B mean Notice Of Shares Buy Back By A Company and Notice of Sale or Cancellation of Treasury Shares respectively.

·         MITRA sold 1,010,200 treasury shares in year 2015. Its activity starts from 26/6/2015 to 6/7/2015.

·         CEO, Tan Eng Piow holding 40.48% shareholding in end of April 2014.

·         EPF is 2nd biggest shareholders with holding 2.23%.

·         Target price of investment firm:

1.    Kenanga - RM 2.35

2.    HLG - RM 2.92

3.    RHB-OSK - RM 2.03

·         Proposed bonus issue on the basic of 1 for 2 existing ordinary shares.

·         Proposed free warrant issue on the basic of 1 for 5 existing ordinary shares.

·         Proposed ESOS.

·         Those proposed subject's ex-date is 17/8/2015.

·         Annual report 2014 mentioned Malaysia's construction industry expected significant growth at 10.7% in 2015.

·         MITRA's construction activities strong backed by mega highways, rail-lines and affordable housing projects in Klang Valley and Putrajaya. Its unbilled sales boosted RM 1.88 billion.

·         Wangsa 9 Residency project which launch since mid-2014 recorded unbilled sales of RM 156.75 million. Gross development value of this project estimated RM 680 million and expected contribute earning to Group from 2015 until completion of project in 2018.

·         Proposed mixed development project and affordable home project at Puchong Prima with combined gross development value of RM 1.57 billion.

 * Photorefractive keratectomy is 镭射眼睛 (Healthcare division)

·         From pie chart above, we can clearly see that primary business is Construction and secondary is Properties.

Business activities ( Derived from AR2014)

Q1''2015 Overview

·         Cleary view of diminishing performance on property development.

·         Construction, Investment in South Africa and Healthcare make an attractive record. Healthcare's result mainly due to disposal gain of office building with amount of RM 650,000.

·         Increased in revenue by RM 57 million or 55% compared Q1''2014.

·         Profit before tax is increasing RM 4 million or 29% compared Q1''2014.

·         Net profit is increasing RM 3 million or 26% compared Q1''2014.

Question

1.    Why worst result from year 2011 to 2012.

2.    Why positive result on investing cash flow in year 2013.

3.    Why positive result on financing cash flow in year 2014 and Q1''2015.

4.    Why negative result on operating cash flow in Q1''2015.

5.    What are latest unbilled sales of MITRA.

Answer

1.    Director explained it as reduced contribution from both the construction and local property development divisions.

2.    Mainly due to disposed 6 million ordinary shares in Rawang Specialist Hospital for cash RM 10,126,032 to Kumpulan Perubatan Johor.

3.    In year 2014, due to RM 18 million and RM 10 million of banker acceptance and short term revolving credit respectively.

4.    Because inventories increased with amount of RM 35 million in Q1''2015.

5.    RM 1.75 billion outstanding order book in end of Q1''2015.

本文只供参考。共勉之。