0113 MMSV

这里有没有人看中 Light-Emitting Diode，也就是 LED 在本地马来西亚和美国未来的市场呢？因为MMS VENTURE BHD (MMSV) 目前主攻研发的活动，目的是要提高 LED 的生产量。除此之外，最近的美元走势会带动和利益于出口为主的股票，同时MMSV 的营业额里有33%是出口去美国的，所以在 MMSV 在货币方面占了不少好处。另外，美国在未来的今年里升息的机会很大，一旦升息后，美元会因很多的投资资金全部跑去美国而让美元变强。不多说了，再说就会变一堆经济学了，以下是对 MMSV 的功课：

Data Analysis  

• EPS's CAGR from year 2010 to 2015 has a good result with 125%, this is due to the massive record in year 2013 and 2014.               

• Average EPS growth rate within 5 years has a negative result, year 2012's record made this.      

• Average free cash flow yield, CY is 2%, less than bank fixed deposit rate.              

• Net loss incurred in year 2012 is due to the last quarter. Operating expense has a huge amount with RM 3,658,401; this is portion of 89% in total operating expense in specific year.           

• Director explains increase of operating expense in year 2012 mainly due to the impairment of inventories.         

• Gross profit and net profit margin is maintained above 27% and 20%, both have a decent result.              

• Rocket on net profit's growth rate in year 2013 and 2014, there recorded 264% and 108% respectively.  

• Year 2014, there are lot of jump records which are total asset, total liabilities, trade receivable, trade payable and cash. All around 100% in increased rate. 

• Net cash is around RM15 million, total borrowing of MMSV is very low. 

• NTA is low. ROE in year 2014 has a good record with 33%. 22% of pass result in year 2013 also attractive.

• PE and DY consider at acceptable level with 11.55 at current price and 3.81% previous record respectively.           

• Result in year 2012 made average CY become not attractive but CY in year 2013 and 2014 is attractive, both have record higher than 10%.             

• Stock price has a CAGR with 37% from year 2010 to 2014.             

• Net trade recorded negative in year 2014 and latest quarter result. This case need to observe closely on future quarterly report.

• Higher trade payable may reflect company cannot pay off the short term obligation. Low trade receivable reflect company difficult to collect the money from their debtors.

Annual Repot 2014 Analysis        

• Listed in Ace market with Technology sector.     

• MMSV's principal activities are manufacture of automated systems & machinery and development of software.              

• MMSV will focus at R&D activities primary gearing them towards growing market niche of high-power LED production. 

• MMSV also look forward to the challenges with "excitement and enthusiasm".

• Profit before tax shoot up 109% mainly due to increase in revenue (+48.8%) and operating income (+105.2%) and decreased in other operating expense (-58.6%).

• Unrealized foreign exchange gain recorded RM 443,900, improved 7.5 times compared previous year. This is due to weaken currency of RM to US dollar.      

• There are increased in inventories with amount RM 3.5 million.

• Inventories included raw materials (23%) and work in progress (77%), both recorded -18% and +180% respectively compared previous year.

• Revenue in Malaysia and America improved 79% and 45% respectively.

• Domestic revenue is seizing 46% and others 54% is exported to foreign country.

• Goh Kim Hock, Non-Independent Non-Executive Director and Tan Hock Hin, Independent Non-Executive Director both are doing lot of transaction during year 2015.             

• Here is the link to check it out: http://www.klse.my/stock/insider/director/all/0113.jsp#stockDetailDiv

• Nowaday, Mr.Goh is reducing his shareholding to 15.08% in latest 2 months. He is the largest shareholder too. 

• A substantial shareholder, Sim Goay Hoon (No position in MMSV and wife of Mr.Goh) is same transaction with Mr.Goh which disposed 1,199,000 shares in latest 2 months.       

• First time MMSV buy back its shares in current month, reason maybe is management thinks the stock prices is undervalued or save the fall condition of substantial shareholder keep selling shares.

• Kenanga and RHB-OSK giving the target price of 0.78 and 0.89 respectively.         

• Personal view on MMSV is market of LED manufacturing industry in Malaysia and America is limited because the biggest market for LED is China and Taiwan.

• Strength in US dollar against RM will lend a hand to MMSV for growing faster in EPS.      

Q1''2015 Analysis             

• MMSV made other investment with amount of RM 500,000 and its value up to RM 505,918.       

• Cash is increased RM 531,267 or 12% within three months.          

• Revenue and net profit increased RM 2.6 million or 53% and RM 0.9 million or 115% respectively compared with Q1''2014.               

• Unrealized forex gain with RM378k due to weaken on RM.         

• Disposal of property, plant and equipment (PPE) valued RM 144,722 with gained RM 2,607.        

• America replaced the Malaysia as the top revenue customer.    

• MMSV move the target customer on Malaysia and America. Previosly Q1''2014, MMSV just gt three customer who is Malaysia, America and Asia; Asia is the top revenue customers before. 

• By comparing Q1''2015 and Q1''2014, revenue in Malaysia and America increased 94% and 210% respectively.    

• The higher revenue was mainly due to higher volume of machines sold as a result of good demand from both the LED industry and smart phones/ devices industry.   

• Favourable forex gain resulted from the strengthening of US Dollar against Ringgit Malaysia during current quarter also is one of the contributer on the higher revenue.  

• Board is optimistic on the prospect of the MMSV in year 2015.   

本文只供参考。共勉之。

4243 WTK

昨天，也就是星期五，股市看起来有点点反弹，上升股438只和下跌股249只。虽然看起来是有点点反弹，但是股市先生的心情难测，随时随刻在下星期一耍个脾气给你下个10点或20点。不说股市了，有时旁身于外是件好事，至少心情不会被影响然后天天笑口常开。那我们来说股票吧，哈哈。。WTK是间以木材为主的公司但是它在木材的Profit Margin不到4%，是个悲观的结局吗？不过它除了木材为业，也有种植，铝箔和磁带，地产和最新的石油和天然气。董事局对新的投资领域——石油和天然气很有信心同时也可以带给集团不错的利润。另外，WTK是2015年冷眼新投资的公司。不知道冷眼效应会不会见效呢？因为WTK最近的业绩真的蛮差的。。。功课如下：

Data Analysis

• Free cash flow yield, CY is less than the fixed deposit rate in Malaysia. So not attractive on CY.
• Average growth rate of EPS in 5 years is around 19% but EPS's CAGR get depressed result with 6% annually.

• Profit margin is not stable upheld in each year. And less than 10% net profit in every sales.

• WTK's business activity is not stable due to profit in fluctuation condition; sometimes its result is worse than last years.

• Dividend payout is maintained at above 20% of net profit.

• Cash of company is accumulative and surpass level of RM 300 million. Its cash per share is worth RM 0.65. This is approximately 62% of its shares price.

• Company's free cash flow is low enough due to it is keep expanding its business by acquire new fixed asset.

• WTK such a cash cow company, its market capitalization is worth RM 500 million but it is holding around RM 313 million of cash.

• On the other hand, WTK's total borrowing is almost same amount with cash in company. It’s borrowing per share same as cash per share with RM0.65.

• So, by deducted cash with borrowing, WTK is left RM 291 million of debt. It is net debt company.

• WTK's share price is pretty stable along the years because it is around RM1 and the average closed price in the end of year is RM1.17, higher than the current price.

• RHB-OSK is giving the target price with RM1.15.

• Due to its shareholder equity very high, my account based earning valuation model giving WTK with higher intrinsic value of RM2.16, this is 52% margin of safety.

• NTA is higher than the current price now, there are different of RM1.71 or 162% between both. Quite high on it.

• With the latest 4 quarter of result, current PE is 15.73. This is around the average KLCI PE.

• DY is not attractive due to very low.

• ROE of company is very little with 2.87% in year 2014. This is due to high equity and low profit of company. Management maybe not using the equity efficiently.

Annual Report 2014 Analysis

• There are 6 division of WTK, which is Oil palm/ forest plantation, Timber, Tapes, Foil, Property and Oil & Gas. 

• Revenue and net profit has a decreased of 5.3% and 21.2% respectively compared with previous year.

• Director explained mainly attributed to the loss sustained in the Group's oil palm plantation and weak contribution from the packaging division.

• Timber division is lower by 2.8% compared with previous year. Due to high consumption tax in Japan, there is a drop of 10% in the sales volume for plywood.

• Due to write off previously capitalized cost and charge related expense for these matured area, oil palm division recorded pre-tax loss of RM9 million.

• Packaging division (manufacturing of tapes and foil)'s revenue also had a drop of 15.5% compared with previous year.

• WTK's timber division performance is guided generally by the Japanese housing.

• Company remain "cautiously optimistic" of prospects in Japan and confident for the boost plan for infrastructure, construction and services in India.

• WTK's planting programme expected completed by 2018.

• WTK also confident for the new step of participation in oil and gas industry.

• The receivable is decreased with RM 66,862,000; this is a pusher on cash of WTK.

• WTK may be using the cash from debtor to purchasing inventories and acquisition of subsidiary.

• The new subsidiary acquired is named Alanya Marine Ventures Sdn. Bhd (AMV). WTK is using cash amounting up to RM38, 250,000 and the issuance of 43,331,164 new ordinary shares at issue price of RM1.30.

• WTK venture into the oil and gas industry via AMV’s interest in Nautical Returns Sdn. Bhd (NRSB).

• Director confident about the NRSB able to achieve minimum profit after tax of RM 10,945,268 and RM 17,189,198 in year 2015 and 2016 respectively.

• From the diagram above, overall performance of WTK is not well. 

• Fong SiLing (冷眼) was acquired 5,000,000 or 1.05% of shareholding in year 2015.

• Reason of Fong SiLing is shareholder maybe he is looking good for the new step in oil & gas industry of WTK.

• Datuk Wong Kie Yik who is the Chairman of BOD is keep buying the WTK shares. He was acquired total 534,000 shares with average price of RM 1.12 from 9 Jan until 17 Jun 2015.

• Company has an action of share buy back on 3/3/2015 with 10,000 shares at RM1.17.

Q1''2015 Analysis

• From the diagram above, overall performance of WTK is not well. 

• Drawdown of trade financing facilities with amount RM 51,937,000 make the positive financing cash flow result.

• Highlight of profit before tax compared with Q1''2014

1. Revenue of Q1''2015 has a drop of 5.79%.
2. Net profit recorded worst with drop of 65.20%.
3. Oil and Gas's RM 180,000 revenue produce RM 1,650,000 profit before tax and this profit contributed 22% of total profit in Q1''2015. This was derived from the provision of Accommodation Workboats (AWBs).
4. Timber recorded drop of 61.70%. This was mainly due to continued wet weather condition and festive seasons.
5. Plantation's loss increased by RM1,791,000. Mainly due to insufficient fresh fruit bunches production volume coupled with weak (Crude Palm Oils) CPO prices to cover the operational costs.
6. Manufacturing and trading segment also had a drop with 49% and 11% respectively. Mainly due to the reduced volume for foil products. 

本文只供参考。共勉之。

基本面试验

以上图的股票是从 KLSE Screener 偷来的（开玩笑），是根据以下的条件光明真大挑选出来，
1. PE < 10
2. ROE > 15
3. DY > 3
4. NTA > Price，也就是Price To Book Value（PTBV）< 1

上面4个条件都是根据基本面所挑选的。条件1至4都是个人觉得一个基本面好然后又被低估的公司该有的条件，或者说是比较稳的条件因为上面4个条件已经把选错公司的风险调至蛮低了（当然不是零风险）。

然后这里想做个小小试验了，也就是探测这11间公司的股价未来几个月或一年会不会因为具有以上4个基本面条件而上升呢？如果靠以上4个基本面条件可以保本就很开心了，因为不用做功课，省了很多的时间。

不过坏处就在于：
1. 错过很多有潜质的公司
2. 不了解公司的前景
3. 随时不能保本

最后对公司做功课是必要的，不然在不了解公司的情况下购买股份是一种投机了，同时也不是个聪明的投资者。以上的目的纯属是个人做个小小的试验，拭目以待吧 ^_^

本文只供参考。共勉之。

9717 SYCAL

号外，号外！又发现一间公司的 Net Net 大过本身的市价了。Graham Net Net 是用公司的流动资产（Current Asset）减掉总债务（Total Liabilities）再除于公司的总股票的数量（Number of Shares）。Benjamin Graham 是我其中一个师父，他的神作品——聪明的投资者（The Intelligent Investor）是我读过最有杀伤力的投资书籍了（我不只读过这一本书而已哦= =）。这连接是大约解释Net Net的概念。然后以上主题的公司就是其中一个例子了，它最新的 Net Net 是 RM 0.51而目前市价是 RM 0.415，中间相差于RM 0.095 或者22.89%。22.89%的利润算是不错了，因为以复利的力量来计算的话，大概3年就可以多一番了，也就是让资本双倍 ^_^ 接下来介绍 SYCAL 的功课：

Data Analysis

• Average free cash flow yield, CY is negative sign with 5%, not my criteria to pick stock.

• EPS's CAGR from year 2010 to 2014 has a nice-looking result, which is 74% per year.

• PE is the factor of Price and EPS. PE and Price's CAGR from year 2010 to 2014 is -26% and 37% respectively. Negative sign on CAGR of PE is decent because the earning is expanding.

• Earning of SYCAL is higher than the growth on PE and this is main reason of PE decreasing yearly.

• Profit margin is upheld at level around 5% and then growth up to 8% in year 2014.

• Profit growth rate is growing from year 2011 to 2014. And previous year up to 100.77%.

• SYCAL is apply big amount of borrowing in year 2014. There is RM66, 198,000 or RM0.21 per shares.

• Cash of SYCAL is rising to RM24, 921,000 or RM0.078 per shares. Insufficient cash for company to pay off those borrowing.

• NTA (RM0.72) is higher than the stock price of SYCAL (RM0.42); there do exist a space between both with RM0.3 or 71.43%.

• Satisfactory result on ROE with 15.74% in year 2014.

• Top management never pays the dividend along the years.

• Free cash flow of SYCAL is under dangerous level due to prior or recently two years with negative free cash flow result.

• Graham Net Net giving SYCAL RM0.51, which is higher than the current price with RM0.09 or 21.42%. Graham Net Net is one of the effective ways to pick stock for Graham.

• Due to some criteria of SYCAL, I think it is suitable for medium term investment. Long term investment will be considered if top management decides to break the rule and pay dividend.

• RHB-OSK is giving the target price of RM0.555 (32% upside potential) in 13/4/2015.

Annual Report Analysis

• Sycal's core business activity is construction which is contributed around 72% and secondary business activity is property development contributed 13% and lastly sales of good and service contributed 15%.

• Construction order book approximately RM550 million.

• In 2014, Sycal secured new joint venture project for proposed mix development in Sri Iskandar, Perak.

• Property development activities included Cheras (KL), Sitiawan (Lumut and Segari), Taiping and Ipoh. This sustains the profit in the future 3 to 5years.

• Director view that current construction order book and development projects in hands, overall performance in the ending of year 2015 expected satisfactory.

• There is no any transaction record for director and substantial shareholders after year 2013.

• Shareholder's fund in year 2009 is negative amount with RM99, 875,000.

• Year 2010 such a turning point for SYCAL.

• Year 2014 also such a DEBT YEAR for SYCAL because it long term and short term borrowing increased by RM60 millions or 3821% and RM2 million or 279% respectively.

• Increased in the joint-venture development cost and decreased in amount to contract customer is the main issue of operating activities going negative result.

• Joint venture development cost is increased RM51, 868,000 or 81% from year 2013 to 2014.

• Joint-venture development in Perak maybe important to SYCAL because of this project, SYCAL apply huge borrowing to pay off its operating cash flow activities.

• Positive result in financing cash flow is due to new proceeding of term loan.

• Term loan's annual effective interest rates in year 2014 are around 8.10 to 9.35%.

• Pengurusan Danaharta Nasional Berhad maybe is the "Touch & Go Card" to apply the great borrowing in year 2014.

• Danaharta is holding 33.33% of total shareholding.

• Danaharta is owned by Minister of Finance Incorporated. So we can be confident for SYCAL on the borrowing issues because it has the big backup in behind.

• 資匯 got an essay discuss about the SYCAL in latest publish report No.330.

• SYCAL operates principally in Malaysia.

Q1''2015 Analysis

• 1st time sees quarter report online in excel form.

• Comparing prior quarter Q1''2014 with latest Q1''2015, there is a upsurge on revenue and profit before tax with 86% and 72% respectively.

• Cost of sales is increasing 94.7% by comparing Q1 with year 2014 and 2015.

• Earnings per share, EPS are enhanced sound with 84.7%.

• Cash of SYCAL is enlarged RM13, 163,000 or 86% within three months period.

• Construction, Property Development and Manufacturing & Trading contributed 80%, 3.8% and 16.2% respectively.

• Increased Group's revenue is mainly from the shopping mall project in Ipoh and the ready-mix concrete operation.

• At 22 May, construction order book approximately RM550 million. There are ongoing development projects in Taiping, Segari and Ipoh and lastly Board feel satisfactory on performance of SYCAL.

本文只供参考。共勉之。

Interest Rate——利率/利息率

PS: Sorry for the poor English language.

As we know that the interest rate is the extra charge which follow the rate of institution charge on the principal borrowed. Borrower should pay the amount of interest in every month for the borrowed amount of money.

From the graph above, we can see that the interest rate of Malaysia had the highest record of 3.50% in year 2006 to 2008 while the lowest record is 2% in year 2009. Latest interest rate is 3.25% in year 2014. In addition, many areas influenced by the fluctuation of interest rate, there are cost of borrowing, company, currency and export.

From this paragraph, I will explain the effect of increased interest rate on the area mentioned above. The cost of borrowing will increased due to the rate of borrowed is increased and the payment of interest on the principal borrowed is rises. For example, current 3% of interest rate of borrowing is moving up to 4%, so the different of 1% is the extra amount of interest we need to afford for the increased of interest rate.

Next, the company's profitability will fall because the interest needed to pay for the bank is increased, this will influenced the cash flow of company and make the company facing the poor performance for the quarter year. Once the profitability of company is descend, the share price of company will drop due to the percent of growth in earning is unmatched with the forecast result. In long term, the stock market maybe going bearish because lot of investor selling out the stock on hand.

Furthermore, the local currency will increased because the rate of deposit in bank is increased. This will attract the foreign investor to make deposit by using their currency. Inflow money from foreign country into local country will help the local currency raised because the demand of local currency is increasing. Lot institutions also make profit through the arbitrage process in the Forex market.

In addition, the export of country will decreasing because the effect of local currency increased and make the local product expensive compared with export country. The cost of exported product to foreign country will increasing and make the international trade going deficit. A deficit number of international trade which is amount of export is less than the import will bring the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has a slower growth rate. This is giving a big impact to the local economy.

本文只供参考。共勉之。

7087 MAGNI

这星期没什么留意股市，因为刚刚从泰国旅行回来。在泰国几天后，突然想到这间公司。真的是灵光一闪，而且是看了泰国美女后想到的（虽然不确定是不是男的= =) 。有没有留意到以上主题这间公司的名字和“美女”有点相似呢？哈哈，美女都要用衣服把自己包装成美美然后电死四周围的男生；然后相同的 MAGNI 的主要生意是 Garment（衣服）和 Packaging（包装）。两者真的相似极了，几乎是 99.99 %。接下来介绍 MAGNI（美女）的功课，这真的是不错的美女哦，做功课时单看数据就有点流口水了，而且想直接向电脑荧屏亲上去（开玩笑的^_^）以下是功课：

Data Analysis

• EPS's CAGR from year 2010 to 2015 has a decent result with 25%.

• Average Free Cash Flow Yield (CY) also attractive with 10%.

• Profit margin is near my criteria to pick stock, RM1 of sales earn RM0.06 of profit.

• Dividend payout of Magni maintained at 30% above. This mean each RM1 of Magni earns will distribute RM0.30 of dividend to share with shareholders.

• Cash of Magni is snowballing by annually. And Magni contain 0 borrowing. This is my criteria to pick stock.

• Net cash or cash per share of Magni equal to RM0.69.

• ROE of Magni is growing from year 2011 to 2014. ROE in year 2014 has a desired result, which is 17.86%. Good management team can be bearing in mind with this level of ROE.

• Q3''2015's PE is exclude last quarter of year 2015. With three quarters of result make PE of Magni near 10, this is very good.

• Cumulative last four quarter of EPS will get PE of 8.57 at current price. Company below PE 10 is one of my criteria to pick stock.

• DY of Magni is higher than the fixed deposit rate in bank. Good investment compared with deposit.

• Trend of EPS is growing within 5 years. Magni keep an uptrend spot on it.

• Par value of Magni is perfect 1, high probability to going split or bonus issue on stock if the price is going higher and highest.

• My valuation model giving Magni the intrinsic value of RM4.23, current price has 17% margin of safety and 22% of upside potential. There is absent of target price on Magni from any investment banks.

• Magni is a long term investment stock. Its DY is fit for doing long term investment.

Annual Report 2014 Analysis

• Main business of Magni is packaging and garment. Garment is the principal business.

• Manufacturing and sales of garments is 81% of total revenue in year 2014. Others 19% is manufacturing and sales of packaging materials.

• The packaging products are typically used by the manufacturing sector, especially the electronic as well as the food, beverage, healthcare and tobacco sub-sectors.

• Group maintains a cautious outlook for the next financial year ending 30 April 2015.

• Tan Kok Aun, who is the Executive Director of Magni is decreasing his shareholding from 1,819,481 or 1.68% to 1,689,481 or 1.56% within 9 months.

• South Island Garment Sdn. Bhd (SIG), Inter-Pacific Packaging Sdn. Bhd, South Island Packaging (Penang) Sdn. Bhd and South Island Plastics Sdn. Bhd are subsidiaries company of Magni.

• With more than 38 years of experience in the apparel industry, SIG has built a good reputation in this industry and is known among its customers as a reliable and consistent manufacturer of high-quality and sophisticated woven sportswear.

• Trade receivable and mainly part of RM and US dollar, both is 40% and 54% respectively.

• Magni's cash on hand is accounted to RM3, 674,000 and others RM71, 059,000 is put in deposit with banks. In process to seeking other opportunity to expand business, banks’ deposit maybe is a good way to increase slightly on cash.

• Company’s two business segments operate mainly in three geographical areas, which are Malaysia, Vietnam and China. Operation in Malaysia principally manufacturing and sales of packaging materials and garments while operation in Vietnam and China are principally manufacturing and sales of garments.

Q3''2015 Analysis

• Compare quarter result of Q3''2014 and Q3''2015, there is an increase of 7.11% in revenue and 17.84% in EPS.

• On the other hand, cumulative result of 9 months or 3 quarters in year 2014 and 2015 is increased of 10.40% in revenue and 6.32% in EPS.

• Packaging seize the three quarter of revenue in year 2015 by 17% and others 83% is contributed by Garment manufacturing.

• Key factors that affect the performance of garment business include mainly the labor costs.

• Key factors that affect the performance of packaging segment include mainly raw material costs (Kraft liner, test liner, medium papers, paper boards, polyethylene resins and etc.)

• Profit before taxation (PBT) for the current quarter increased by 16.3% mainly due to higher revenue and other operating income.

• The Group maintains a cautiously positive outlook for the remaining quarter of the current financial year.

本文只供参考。共勉之。

免费股 FREE STOCK

免费股，它是一只非常棒的股，同时也是一只潜力股。它能让你对它产生一种无忧无虑的感觉，这是因为你买它的成本是零。对的，我没说错，Cost Is Zero。

不继续绕花园了，直接进主题了。免费股简单来说是只你用利润买回来的股票。通常股票上的利润是买卖的差价乘以股票的数量得来的，然后你用当中的利润换来股票而已。例子如下：

去年你在 RM 1的价位买了100 LOT ( 目前1 LOT = 100) 的公司A，这里的总成本是 RM 1 x 10,000= RM 10,000.

然后你在今年 RM 2 的价位卖了50 LOT，这里卖的总价值是 RM 2 x 5,000= RM 10,000，这就拿回了成本然后剩下去年买的 50 LOT 的 RM 1公司A在户口里面。

在这个时候你没赚钱，同时也没亏钱。不过目前你手上拥有价值 RM 10,000的公司A，而且这是成本零的哦。因为你把利润就是换成了手上的公司A。

另外只要你心里有个要卖的价位，就可以知道要卖多少数量的股才可以剩下免费股了。算法如下：

( 卖的价位 x 数量 ) + 已收到的股息  = 买股的成本 + 买卖的水钱

例子：

卖的价位：RM 2.50

数量：?

已收到的股息：RM 100

买股的成本：RM 10,000

买卖的水钱：RM 30

( RM 2.50 x 数量 ) + RM 100  = RM 10,000 + RM 30

然后数量 = ( RM 10,000 + RM 30 - RM 100 ) / RM 2.50

                 = 3,972

                 = 39 LOT

最后你只需要在 RM 2.5 卖了39 LOT 就可以回本了，剩余在户口的就是免费股 。

我也在今年三月实行这计划了，然后在前几天被证实可行的，证据如下：

锵锵！！哈哈哈，这是卖了股后剩下的1 LOT 的免费股（1 LOT会不会太少了= =）因为目前的股本是迷你型，所以当时就买了小小的5 LOT。5 LOT 生 1 LOT，我是很开心和知足了因为可以让我免费拿年报和免费拿股息^_^

本文只供参考。共勉之。

5162 ECS

总感觉今天的股市有点静悄悄的，是不是熊和牛在打架争上位呢？大众一定都希望熊永远都输在牛的脚底下，当然我也不例外 ^_^ 哈哈。。不多说了，先POST个这星期的功课，那就是以上大题目了。这间公司是间科技股，昨天碰巧是30仙股息的Ex-Date。公司习惯一年派2次息，预计下一次派息的时间就是11月了。另外ECS从2010至现在股价的复合年均增长率（CAGR）是大概13%，也就是说一番只需要大概5.5年哦，听起来好像很不错，不过需要确保公司未来有很多发展的空间。需要更了解“番”的意思请参考复利这连接。另外以下是大马ECS的老大和朋友：

然后以下是跟ECS有来往的公司（当中蛮多世界级的公司）：

再然后以下就是功课了：

• From year 2013 to 2014, revenue has an impressive growth of 20%. Net profit has a growth of 9%.

• Profit margin is very little due to RM1 of revenue just realize the net profit of RM0.02.

• PE and DY are worth to invest. Ignore the PE, ROE and DY in Q1''2015 because that just quarterly data.  

• Presently PE, DY and ROE are around 8.78, 3.30% and 14.55% respectively.         

• CY, Cash Yield is dropping from year 2012 to 2014. Latest CY is 2014 is 5% which higher than the fixed deposit rate of bank.               

• Free cash flow of ECS is reducing in yearly.          

• ECS is a company which zero borrowing and low non-current asset.        

• ECS dint own any land and building.        

• Larger cash and healthy net cash enable ECS undertake any business expansion in future.           

• Those directors are respectable because they are just concentrating the growth on firm. Fact may see through they did not help to hold or push the stock price. Transaction of directors to ECS was stopped after year 2012.            

• ICT Distribution segment expanded 32.1% year-on-year and this is boosted by the steady sales of notebooks and PCs, coupled with smartphone distribution portfolio.  
• Revenue in ICT shot 248% is due to re-classification of extended warranties from the Enterprise Systems segment in FY2014 and this make the Enterprise System segment decline of 8.9%. 

• Dividend payout is sustained around 36%+ in year 2013 and 2014.            

• ECS appointed by Microsoft to distribute Lumia 930, Lumia 830, Lumia 735 and Lumia 535 in Feb 2015.     

• ECS was selected by Xiaomi to be distributer of Xiaomi MiPad tablets in March 2015. Xiaomi is the 3rd largest smartphone distributor in world.       

• My valuation model is giving ECS with fair price of 1.60 and Kenanga given the target price of 1.76. 

• Government’s continued support for the ICT industry as reflected in Budget 2015 is anticipated to encourage this growth.               

• ECS is targeting to enlarge the smartphone distribution portfolio in year 2015.   

• New enhanced B2B platform is reintroduced by ECS in Q1''2015.               

• ECS has 4 subsidiary companies which are ECS ASTAR, ECS PERICOMP, ECS KU and ECS KUSH.     

• ECS is purchasing RM694million of office equipment during year 2014; this may be due to the expansion of business.     

• Fong Siling was sold his 100,000 shares within one year and left 700,000 shares in year 2015.  

最后公司最新的Q1''2015交出了不错成绩，跟Q1''2014比的话，Revenue上升了46.2%然后Profit Before Tax (PBT)上升了90.4%。公司预计会在Q2''2015推出新的手机及其他平叛电脑产品，同时也对公司在2015年的表现有信心。

最后功课完毕。如有不恰之处请见谅 ^_^

本文只供参考。共勉之。

马来西亚产业要泡沫了吗？

Koon Yew Yin is a retired Chartered Civil Engineer and one of the founders of IJM Corporation Bhd and Gamuda Bhd. Mr. Koon was a former member of the Board of Engineers for 3 terms and a committee member in SIRIM for the drafting of the Malaysian Standards for Cement and Concrete. He was Secretary General of the Master Builders Association, Malaysia for 9 years. He is also well known for his philanthropic activities benefiting young students and various charitable organizations. The most successful stocks this few years which Koon Yew Yin holding are Latitude Tree and V.S. Industry.


My purpose of writing this article is to help you improve your investment skill.

In my previous article titled ‘An Important Investment Lesson’ I said that you must frequently look at company announcements and when you see any company showing a sudden jump in profit, you should find out more about the company before you rush to buy the share.

After you have verified that the company will surely make more profit in this year than last year, you can buy the share if it is still selling cheaply in terms of P/E ratio.

Moody’s report of slow property sales

Malaysian demand for residential property is set to slow further in 2015, according to a forecast by Moody’s. A report issued by the ratings agency on 5th Feb this year said property demand will be affected by cooling measures introduced in 2013 and weak buyer sentiment.

According to Jacintha Poh, assistant vice-president and analyst at Moody’s, property sales in 2015 should be dampened by anticipated higher mortgage rates, as well as the implementation of the 6% Goods and Services Tax (GST) in April.

Company announcement can be misleading.

Quite often company announcement of quarterly profit can be misleading especially property companies. For example: The recent profit announcement by Hua Yang attracted my attention. Its 4th Quarter EPS was 11 sen and its annual EPS was 41.9 sen and the share is currently selling at about Rm 2.10. Moreover, I was further tempted to buy after I read T A Securities’ buy recommendation as posted on the latest issue of The Edge.

I looked at Hua Yang’s announcement in Bursa and I found out more details of the company.  In summary, it has trade and other payables of Rm 142 million, short term borrowings of Rm 79 million and long term borrowing of Rm 192 million.

Share capital Rm 264 million and reserves Rm 202 million=total net assets Rm 466 million.

Hua Yang EGM on 2nd June 2015

The most worrying announcement is that it is calling an EGM on 2nd June 2015, to seek shareholders’ approval to buy a piece of land for Rm 120 million cash. They have to increase their bank borrowing to pay for the land. It looks like the Board of directors does not know that there is already an oversupply of properties in the market and they do not seem to realize that it will take about 7 years to complete the development of the land before they can see any profit.

When you see property companies showing good profit in their latest announcements, it is important to find out if the good result is solely due to the presale of their properties.

Another example: Asian Pac Holdings Bhd or Asiapac showed incredible results for the 1st Quarter 2015 as follows :

With profit of RM369 Million and EPS of 0.3748 sen this company is a winner!!. How can the revenue of Rm 60 million produce a profit of Rm 369 million?

Should you buy the share selling at 27 sen? The answer should be a resounding “NO” as the higher profit is due to revaluation of assets and not from actual trading operation.   Hence such results are not sustainable and there will not be a repeat in the next quarter.

Be Careful: When you see property companies showing good profit in their latest announcements, it is important to find out if the good result is solely due to revaluation of assets or due to the presale of their properties.

I talk to a few developers recently and almost all of them told me that they have difficulty in selling their condominiums. They cannot completely sell all their condominiums which are currently open for sale. The worst damaging effect is that they have to construct the whole high rise building even if a small percentage is presold.

Unlike developing terrace or detach houses, the developers can hold on to the vacant land if the houses are not presold and holding vacant land will cost less interest charges than holding completed condominiums.

No more opportunities for speculators:

A few years ago until recently when property prices were rising, speculators could easily make profit by putting small down payments and sell their bookings before the construction completion. Now speculators cannot do it because property prices are falling.

Avoid buying property shares in general because their profit growth prospect is not so bright. There might be a few exceptions that I do not know.

以上全部摘自：Koon Yew Yin's Blog
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/77821.jsp

0093 SOLUTN

最近，马来西亚的政治风险一波未平，一波又起。这使得股市一直被外资抛售了连续几天，同时股市连续泻了几天，从星期一的1767.38跌到现在的1735.93，足足跌了1.81%。所以上星期都没什么看股市，一直专注在寻找潜力股和做功课。

不多说了，先说主题。这次又来一间冷眼加码的公司了，而且这次的码也加得蛮大的哦，差0.24%就跃升为公司的主要股东了。另外公司的主要股东是Mr.Lim Yong Hew（这位是SOLUTN的创始人）和Mr.Lim Hai Guan（这位是执行董事），这两位是公司的两大股东而第三大股东就是冷眼了。。。这是冷眼目前这几月手上增持和减持的公司：

                                                               （图片摘自这里）

然后这是前几天开始做的功课：

• SOLUTION ENGINEERING HOLDINGS (0093, SOLUTN) belong to category of Ace Market.

• Growth rate on EPS from year 2013 to 2014 has a massive record of 364%.

• Revenue also has a high growth rate of 183% from year 2013 to 2014. This is due to the completion of project.

• Total asset and total liability has growth rate of 42% and 214% respectively from year 2013 to 2014.

• Cash has a CAGR of 26% from year 2010 to 2014. Healthy cash company.

• ROE for year 2014 has a favorable result.

• PE in year 2014 around the edge of 10, worth to invest in this stock.

• DY also around the fixed deposit rate of bank, which is 4.76% in year 2014.

• From those data above, year 2013 to 2014 is a biggest turning point for SOLUTN.

• Fong Siling, 冷眼 become the 3rd biggest shareholder in year 2015 and he holding near 5% or 9,660,000 of total share outstanding. I am first time c his largest holding of quantity in company.

• Fong Siling may trust the future view of SOLUTN due to the largest of shareholding.

• My valuation on SOLUTN is giving the price of 0.54, which having the potential upside of 74%.

• CY, Cash Yield in year 2014 is attractive.

• SOLUTN principally in the business of designing and development of equipment for biolubricant project and for engineering education and research and provision of training and curriculum content development.

• Approximately 20% of SOLUTN’s sales is exported and quoted in USD.

• Recent completed project in year 2014 under state water operator SAINS (Syarikat Air Negeri Sembilan Sdn Bhd (SAINS), has opened a door for SOLUTN to other state water operators.

• The Group operates predominantly in Malaysia.

• SOLUTN established credible reputation in both the domestic and international markets.

• SOLUTN also mentioned that they are confident for the result in biggest investment in the automotive lubricants business by move to bigger factory to tap into growing lubricants market.  

• Segmental report on category of sale and geographical location is not provided in annual report.

• Annual General Meeting (AGM) on date 16/6/2015. Proposed of share buyback and ESOS.

• SOLUTN mentioned that has potential contract on pipeline and prospect achieved better financial result in end of year 2015.

• Q1''2015 showed that revenue and net profit is increased of 121% and 182% for Q1''2015 and Q1''2014 respectively.

• This impressive result is due to the improvement in revenue and profit was attributable to higher sales, better profit margin, better project cost control and management and favorable forex.

最后功课完毕。如有不恰之处请见谅 ^_^

本文只供参考。共勉之。

RED "BEAR" 红熊来了吗？

今天的股市上了几点后就经不起考验一路向南了。。。这时候就有考验大家是不是患有羊群症了。。。对自己手上的公司有信心的投资者会继续持有自己的股票；相反对自己手上所握住的公司没信心就会跟着羊群一起被”熊“骗去向南的方向奔驶。很多人因为看到自己手上的股票的利润/亏损一度再一度地蒸发/扩大，然后过不了自己的那关然后把手头上所有公司割爱了。当熊市已过，被割爱的公司又回到了原点或更高点，这时只能在旁心痛自己当时为何卖了心爱的公司。。。所以投资者的心态时时刻刻都是最重要了 ^_^ 我深信经过时间和考验，所以人的心态会更上一层楼。

另外，我上个星期五对马来西亚TOP20公司做了一项简单的记录，然后今天闭市后也对上星期五TOP20的公司再做一项简单的记录。下图就是这两天对TOP20公司的市值做了一个比较：

20间公司的平均下跌的巴仙是大约1%左右，这和今天FBM KLCI下跌的1.13%差不远 ^_^ 当然这也不能证明什么，我只是看看在跌了20.12点的股市会对TOP20公司的市值有什么影响。最后希望一马公司（1MDB）的问题快快解决，这样大家就可以趁小熊市时买几间已被贬值的公司。

本文只供参考。共勉之。

5236 MATRIX

本来有睡意的一个晚上，突然心血来潮想做功课，金群利 （5236，MATRIX）自然而然变成我想做功课的目标，然后马上打开电脑开始动工，一动做动了几个小时，做完对Matrix的分析后，这间公司的业绩跟（7235，SUPERLN）有点相似。在今年的3月3号对SUPERLN做完分析后一直想在低价位买进公司的股票，不过没有想到那时就是低价位。当时的RM0.79跳到今天的RM1.46。。。两月后足足跳了84.8%。。不知道MATRIX会不会也如此（自己已经没子弹进场了）。。。。MATRIX两月后会不会也跳了84.8%飞到RM 6.15的价位呢？哈哈哈哈，我开始发梦了= =

由于MATRIX只有两年的数据，所以功课也自然少了。

• The Group operates predominantly in Malaysia.

• Company's primary business activities are sales of development properties. Sales of completed properties and Education services are the subordinate business. 

• The Board has adopted a dividend policy of paying out about 40% of the Group’s consolidated profit after tax.

• Q1''2015's net profit is 63% of whole year's net profit in 2014. Here got an important point, it is just a quarter's result!!!!

• Profit margin is excellent; RM1 of sales can earn net profit around RM0.30.

• Matrix is giving total 4 times of dividend within a year. 2013 special dividend, 2014 bonus issue, 2015 special dividend, lastly 2016 is......?

• The total borrowing per share is increasing 200% within few months.

• My valuation on stock is giving this stock of RM5.96 (Act like got bit overstate on it, haha). This is 44% of MOS at price of RM3.33.

• Q1''2015 report showed the decreasing of trade payable and increasing of trade receivable by RM 57 million and RM85 million respectively is the main reason of negative cash flow from operation.

• Proceed from term loan in financing amounted to RM 77 million. This makes the positive result from financing cash flow.

• Positive sign of financing cash flow maybe result that company is using debt to pay shareholders dividend.

• Matrix has a high percentage of ROE which maintained at 27%+ previous two years.

• PE and DY match my criteria. Construction sector's average PE is 29 in April 2015. From the view of PE and DY, Matrix is valuable to invest.

• There is just two years of historical data of Matrix, so the result of financial ratio showed maybe not strong.    

• Matrix target to launch new projects amounting to a gross development value (“GDV”) of RM1 billion in Negeri Sembilan and Johor in FY2015, which will lay the Group’s foundation to deliver stronger growth in the near future. 

• In February 2015, the Group completed the acquisition of an additional 164 acres of industrial land near Sendayan TechValley. The new tract of land, to be named Sendayan TechPark, would boost our balance net saleable land bank to 310 acres from about 187 acres currently.

• Annual report 2014 is described briefly about flow of all projects. Further information can refer to Matrix Q1''2015 Slides.   

看了以上分析后，再看下图。（个人比较喜欢用半桶水的英文来分析数据 ^_^ ，如有错误请多多原谅）

以上的图我是从KLSE Screener里统计出来的数据。然后以上是根据和MATRIX同行业，也就是做产业生意。另外再用Market Capital（市值）来做顺序排序。从上面的数据我们可以看到在众多市值高过MATRIX来比较，MATRIX的EPS，PE，DY和ROE都胜过其他公司。这数据也让我觉得MATRIX是间目前会闪闪发亮的产业公司。SPSETIA这位产业龙头的市值是MATRIX的5倍。。。怕怕。。。。

本文只供参考。共勉之。

5197 FLBHD

今天FLBHD交了失望的成绩。。。功课如下：

以上季Q1''2014来比较，得到的结论是：
1. Revenue 下跌了20.58%, Net profit也下跌了18.77% 。
季报里面表示：“Decrease in revenue in current quarter was mainly due to quantity sold to USA was lower, as a result of delay in arrival of vessel departing to USA。” 售量的减少和船只的拖延造就了以上的下跌。

2. Segment Reporting里也表示Manufacturing下跌了20%。而Electricity上升了些许。如图：

3. 高层说美元的上升让FLBHD的Profit margin上升了，以上面功课来说的确上升了些许。另外高层也打算减少对人力资源的依赖，转向收购更多的机械。最后高层也对今年的业绩有信心。

4. FLBHD的Unrealised gain on foreign exchange上升了235%，从RM (216, 000) 升到RM 292,000。

5. 这季FLBHD累计了总额RM 72,816,000的现金。Cash per share 是 RM0.71，期待公司未来如果用这笔庞大的现金。上面的功课请忽略2015年的PE和ROE因为这两个目前是以季来算。

6. 最后本人对公司未来的发展有信心。就算公司的股价跌了，还有RM 0.80 cents的股息或者5%+的DY来安慰我的心灵^_^。另外，在我心中的FLBHD是值RM2.03的公司，以目前的股价，margin of safety高达28.5%了。

本文只供参考。共勉之。

0049 OCNCASH

今天本来想对MATRIX和MITRA之间做功课的，不过突然看到一位网友POST一只冷眼前辈今年新买进的公司，那就是以上标题。然后就不多加思考就马上跳过MATRIX和MITRA，直接对OCNCASH做功课了。功课不包括介绍公司，因为这些都可以上网询问“酷哥” ^_^

In 2014, amount owning to director is 1,042,550 compared with 2,150,151 in 2013.

冷眼 holding 0.22% or 502k of shares on year 2015.

Revenue is increasing year by year but the net profit drop a 24% on year 2014 from 2013. This is due to the loss of disposal of Polyethylene (PE) Modular machine.

Account based earning valuation model giving the intrinsic value of 0.45 which is MOS  24% of current price.

第一天's analysis giving 0.657 as intrinsic value and MOS is 48% of current price.

Total borrowing per share is higher than cash per share by 0.01. Insufficient cash company.

The entire Graham’s valuation is overvalued to the current price.

EPS's CAGR is attractive because 28% from 2010 to 2014. In addition, the price has a CAGR of 48% from 2010 to 2014. Capital gain of 投机 in short term maybe suitable.

From the both EPS and price's CAGR, the PE on 2015 is focasted at 17.87. Overvalued from the averaged KLCI PE coz price's CAGR higher than EPS's CAGR.

P/B, PE and DY not match my criteria on stock.

Tan Siew Chin and Chen Lee Chew both husband and wife is the CEO and Non-Independent Non-Executive Director respectively in company.

Net loss on disposal of property, plant and equipment accounted to RM1, 685,044.

Administrative expenses increased 22% or RM870k to make the operating profit going down.

COGS increased 9% while revenue increase 6% from 2013 to 2014.

There is using of cash in investing of purchasing the property, plant and equipment accounted to RM8.3 million. This amount is buying the land and building. This makes negative cash in 2014 with amount RM 2,407,238.

Future growth of the company is optimistic. Suggested to buy if EPS in future is giving favorable result. Look forward to the result Q1''2015.

本文只供参考。共勉之。

Compound Interest (复利)

最近本人发现本人的理解能力真的很慢和有待进步。。。因为在最近才真真了解到复利的真真意义。在股海漫游这一年里，读了不少书；看了不少文章；听了不少新闻，至今天才了解复利真的突然觉得自己好迟钝。。。复利其实是个在本金上利上加利的意思，它会把原本已经加上利息的本金再继续加利息，这个过程会一直滚啊滚啊滚把本金提升了不少（当然要在高巴仙的利息）。例子如下文：

原本1KG的雪球，在雪地上滚了一圈后变成2KG的雪球，这时雪球已经是2KG的雪球了。然后2KG的雪球再滚一圈变成了2.5KG的雪球，然后2.5KG的雪球再滚第三圈就变成了3.3KG的雪球，这样的雪球滚了再滚就越变越重了。这个就是复利的概念了。

还是不明白的话可以看看这个图，本人是在做了这个复利的excel过程中才真真了解。。。。

Invested value是本金，也就是开始投资的钱，在整个过程中是完全没有用到自己的钱哦，除了那个RM 1000。上面的4到30是在一年里所赚到的巴仙，我们可以见在每年4%的情况下，我们可以在18年后得到RM2000，总共利用了每年4%和18年后来让我们的本金增加了一倍或1番了。另外看看10%，需要让本金翻了一倍只需要8年。4%需要18年而10%需要8年来让本金1番。所以就算是相差1%，在经过数年时间的累积也会相差很大的。说真的，一切看图就完全明白了复利~~

本文只供参考。共勉之。

Share Repurchase (回购股票)

回购股票的意思是公司用自己的现金或者贷款来买自己公司的股份。每当公司宣布要回购自己公司的股票时，公司的价格都会在短期内飙升，所以会在短期内吸引了很多投资和投机者买相关公司。

回购股票的利多于弊，如下：

利，

1. 公司的EPS会提升因为股份(total outstanding of share) 增加了。

2. 减少公司股价的波动。

3. 公司卖出所回购股份的价位时会得到capital gain。这提供了投资机会给公司。

4. 公司回购股份的原因是公司的价值被低估了。

弊，

1. 减少公司的财务资源。

2. 公司的cash flow 会被影响。(如果借钱回购股票，net cash in financing activities会非常高)

3. 回购股票的现金可能投资在其他领域会更有潜质。如买地，收购公司，扩展业务等。

写这篇文章草稿的同时，本人今天放假回家看到两本东西，那是

(5197,FLBHD) 和 (7803, RUBEREX)会各别在5月20号和21号召开Annual General Meeting (AGM)，希望股东们高抬贵手把重要的票投给支持公司回购股票的提议。

本文只供参考。共勉之。

个人 TOP 5 股票/公司

Code    公司       当天价位

5197  FLBHD        1.43      木材股
5162  ECS             1.48      科技股
7235  Superln       0.955      工业股
7117  Century       0.695      运输股
7803  Ruberex      0.655       手套股

这是这一个月来不断、不断再不断做功课得到的潜力股， 个人注重在PE，DY和未来趋势。

本文只供参考。共勉之。

本地散户，本地基金，外资

本地散户，本地基金，外资的例子

今天在Investalks看到了一篇文章，同时也吸收了不少知识。股票的浮动是因为交易量的数量而影响了它的心情，有时会开心的跳上来；有时也会脸红红的发脾气，而股市也不例外。每一天的交易量来源是来自三个，那是本地散户，本地基金和外资会。这三个来源会影响股市的上上下下，以这几个星期的情况就知道了。前两个星期，每一天的交易量都是外资从马来西亚撤出，然后股市的指数就一直狂泻不止，在这个时候通常都会看到很多的投资“大师”出来吹。而这个星期外资开始流进马来西亚股市，这几天的股市才看到有一点点的希望+反弹，在这个同时那些“大师”突然消失不见了。。。。以下是来自逆风兄的文章。。共勉之。。

今天突然来了灵感，在思索着一个问题。

论坛里常常看到人们谈论和争议的话题，不外是两个：
1. 股市投资，要长期还是打游击。
2. 投资股票，要优先买蓝筹股还是非蓝筹股。

在还没有讨论到以上两个问题前，我想先从吉隆坡股市谈起。

吉隆坡股市的投资者有本地基金，散户和外资。

先不谈外资，就说本地散户和基金机构。

本地基金多数买入蓝筹股或指数股，买入后多数都没什么买卖，除非遇到基金被赎回。对于这些基金来说，基金经理年年都收取不菲的管理费，只要基金每年能保持稳定的增长就足够了，即使是那么的一丁点增长。对他们来说，只要所属的基金表现能与大市同步或好一点，饭碗就不愁了。他们也不希望太积极，有太好的表现，以免来年不能维持或退步时，受到非议。这种操作，也是最容易的。有鉴于此，他们买入了蓝筹股或指数股，使到这些股在吉隆坡股市里的表现向来都很稳健，也没什么波动。

从这里就产生了所谓长期投资。人们开始说长期投资是最稳当的投资。长期投资能让人们的财富不断的增长，是最正确的投资方式。

但是，从另一个角度来看，我们发现吉隆坡股市的大多数基金表现大体上也只是一般，并没有太出色的表现。从我早期本身曾经买入过的本地出名基金，有积极成长基金与指数基金，我甚至长守了超过10多年，但是基金表现却太令人失望，表现完全衬托不出一名基金经理所应具有的专业投资知识。他们的表现跟一般普通的投资者没什么分别，如果不是更糟透的话。

事情为什么会是这样呢？我想这跟基金经理的投资哲学有关---不求特出，只求无过，再加上扣去他们身上每年获取的不菲管理费，所剩就有限了（要是不亏的话）。当然还有一个原因，看完后面我们就会明白了。

说到本地散户，他们的投资策略多数应该会和机构投资相反。他们买入非蓝筹股，多数都打游击，不长期持有。由于散户的参与，于是非蓝筹股的波动很大，大起大落，不像蓝筹股的无波动（比较上）。另外这里漏了提到的，还有一种股市投资参与者，就是炒家。

我们都知道，炒家都喜欢投机非蓝筹股，无它，因为非蓝筹股资本小，多散户参与，波动大，所以容易赚快钱。

1.        投资机构及基金--- 除了少数特大型的投资机构，如公积金局能赚到大钱，其他规模不是非常大的基金不见得能赚大钱，最多也只是一般。原因上面已提过了。
2.        炒家---多数都能赚大钱，除了在特殊情况下他们会亏钱。答案后面能找到。
3.        散户---多数是亏钱。

上面三种形类的投资者，机构型公积金局因为拥有数百上千亿的资金，能控制与左右股市的表现，能坚持长期投资，所以投资成绩一般都不错。其他规模不是很大，不能左右股市表现的基金，表现就一般了。至于炒家，虽然资金不是很大，但是因为他们是专攻某类特定股项，所以往往都能左右有关股项的价格，一般都能赚大钱，只有遇到特殊情况，他们才会倒霉而亏钱。最可怜的当然是散户了。散户资金有限，只能跟随，不能创造局势，加上往往是后知后觉，当然是吃大亏了。

从上面看来，长期投资只有特大机构能赚大钱，一般的基金都不能。打游击就只有炒家能赚大钱，一般的散户都不能。买蓝筹及指数股则还是大机构能赚大钱。买非指数股则还是炒家赚钱，散户很难赚。

事情为什么是这样呢？长期不一定行，打游击也不行。买蓝筹指数股不容易大赚，买非蓝筹指数股也不容易。

大家没有想到一个重要的因素，就是外资。

外资进来吉隆坡股市投资，夹带着庞大的资金。要是他们一点点的进来，一点点的进入股市，一切都会相安无事。同样的，要是他们一点点的出去，一点点的撤出股市，股市也会风平浪静。但是，要是外资一瞬间进来，任何股项一刻间就会上涨。要是他们一刻间撤出股市，市场就会立刻掀起大浪。

外资主要购买蓝筹指数股。因为他们的资金规模庞大，小型的非蓝筹股流通性小，不是他们的选项。现在的投机型外资从不长期投资。他们在很短的时间内进入一个股市，拉高了股价，然后也在很短的时间内一窝蜂地抛售，撤离股市。

因为外资的进来与出去，使到吉隆坡股市不再平静，指数不再平稳地的上涨，蓝筹股也不能长期地平稳上涨。当蓝筹股上到相当高，他们满意的价位时，他们就会立刻抛售撤出，使到蓝筹股股价在短时间内大跌。这使到本地基金的表现大打折扣，不能有良好的表现，在某种程度上也破坏了他们的长期投资策略。

当长期投资蓝筹指数股的基金受到外资撤离的打击时，一般的散户就更不必说了。散户 的打游击与非蓝筹股投资也受到股市指数大跌的影响，遭到了池鱼之殃，纷纷弃甲而逃。

外资为何不选择长期投资，而要选择打游击呢？大家认为外资在吉隆坡股市是赚大钱还是亏钱？我想不用我说，大家都认同外资在我们的股票市场是赚了大钱才撤离的。打游击赚大钱，对他们来说，一点都不是问题。

说到这里，我想大家现在对投资什么股，怎样投资应该有个概念了。长期投资与否，买蓝筹指数股与否，似乎都不是关键性的。要是我们能在外资都撤离了，股市跌得遍体鳞伤时进场，然后一直持有股票，直到外资重新进来再把股市推得很高时先行离场，我们的投资就能大赚钱了。

http://www.investalks.com/forum/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2575&page=955#pid3465681

2014年的黑色10月？

在这黑色的2014年10月，马来西亚股市跌破了很难爬上的1800点，是否熊市会来“市”汹汹，把股市崩了再来一个金融风暴。。。金融风暴的历史分别在1997和2007，今年的2014应该不会那么快到的，希望现在只是市场大调整。另外相信在十月头开始到今天，很多人的纸上盈利慢慢地减少，而我的正好倒反（纸上亏损慢慢地增加）。在这个时候，应该很多人像羊群效应都把自己手上的股票通通套现了，以防亏损增加。股市里的资金流动大多数都是卖出套现的话，这可能会把沉睡的熊从山洞里叫出来，然后把辛辛苦苦爬上去的股市拉下来。

看了上图再比较三年的股市，2012和2013年有明显的上升而2014年的不稳定因为在九月开始就有下降的现象，希望现在的十月只是市场大调整，然后在十一个开始继续冲。当然这些都是现在每个人心里希望的现象，市场的变动都无法预测的因为它被很多很多的因素所影响，就算是市场大师，股市大师和经济大师，他们都无法准确的预测明天的股市。明天马来西亚的股市多数也一片红海了因为今天的美国股市跌了1%多。。。手上有多现钱的人可以趁低吸入了哦，不过时机要选得对，同时公司也要选得对。

面对这样的熊市的时候，市场会出现很多类型的投资者。例如：A会把手上的股票卖完因为他们都过不了自己心里的那一关或者纸上亏损已经超过自己的界限了；同时B会买完A所卖的股票因为B觉得这是一个好机会；C选择不卖也不买因为没多余的现金或者买股的目的是收股息，他们不被市场的浮动影响；而D是对自己买的公司很有信心同时也相信公司的股价暂时被市场影响；E是放弃型，看到纸上亏损一天比一天地多，卖了手上的股票会把大部分的资金给亏了所以选择继续等待。请问你会是哪一个类型呢？？？？

简介版的2015年的【财政预算案】

首相宣布明年的财政预算案后，这几天的电视机都在播着各领域的专家对预算案的看法。有的讲政府为了降低人民的痛苦，而免除了辣沙，有卖面包，水果和咖啡之类的；有的讲有助年轻人买房子；有的讲政府已经连续18年赤字的预算案；有的讲预算案只短期激励经济，并没意外惊喜。

在预算案里有个蛮吸引我的，那就是偿还PTPTN可享有20%的折扣。之前我在foundation的时候借了总额RM8,000的PTPTN，而这RM8,000对我开始做工赚钱有了一些阻碍，那就是每个月要偿还大约RM400，这不包括degree所借的RM48,000。Degree所借的RM48,000是每个月需要偿还大约RM300。所以2016年的开始，我每个月需要偿还RM700，这是一笔很大的数目。所以首先把每个月要偿还的RM400搞掂了会对以后有很大很大的帮助，同时也享有20%的折扣。